As we race ever-nearer to the 150th edition of the Run For The Roses on Saturday May 4, we take a look at which potential 2024 Kentucky Derby runners have tasted the Churchill Downs track in the past and if this is actually a positive based on recent trends.
Eight Possible Kentucky Derby Runners Have RUN at Churchill Downs Before
You’ve heard the saying ‘horses for courses’, right? It’s a phrase you hear a lot in the world of horse racing, with some equine stars preferring certain venues and running better there than at others. While, simply having past experience of any racetrack can only be a good thing.
We will delve deeper below to see if this theory applies to the Kentucky Derby – as, don’t forget, the Run For The Roses is only for 3 year-olds. so many are still lightly-raced.
However, when looking at the 2024 edition, there will be a maximum of 20 Kentucky Derby horses heading to post and as it stands there are EIGHT possible entries that have raced at Churchill Downs before.
These are – Catching Freedom, Stronghold, Just Steel, Mystik Dan, Honor Marie, Resilience, West Saratoga and Track Phantom.
Between this bunch they’ve raced at Churchill Downs 18 times and racked up eight wins (44%).
2024 Kentucky Derby Runners & Their Churchill Downs Form
| Horse | Total Career Runs (All Tracks) | Churchill Downs Runs | Churchill Downs Wins | Track Strike-Rate (%) |
| Fierceness |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Sierra Leone |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Forever Young (JPN) |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Catching Freedom |
5 |
2 |
1 |
50% |
| Stronghold |
6 |
1 |
1 |
100% |
| Just Steel |
11 |
2 |
1 |
50% |
| Endlessly |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Mystik Dan |
6 |
2 |
1 |
50% |
| Dornoch |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Honor Marie |
5 |
3 |
2 |
67% |
| Resilience |
6 |
2 |
0 |
0% |
| West Saratoga |
10 |
3 |
1 |
33% |
| Track Phantom |
7 |
3 |
1 |
33% |
| Encino (scratched) |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Domestic Product |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Just A Touch |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Epic Ride |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Catalytic |
3 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Grand Mo The First |
6 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| Society Man |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
| T O Password |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0% |
Seven 2024 Kentucky Derby Runners That Have WON At Churchill Downs In The Past
Of the eight Kentucky Derby hopefuls that have raced at Churchill Downs already in their careers, seven of these have also won at the track – which equates to a 88% strike-rate.
Only Resilience has run at the venue (twice) and not managed to get his head in front with a third and a second.
Kentucky Derby Favorites Sierra Leone and Fierceness Are Yet To Race at Churchill Downs
The Gun Runner colt Sierra Leone is one of the big Kentucky Derby picks in the betting market – but he’ll be running at Churchill Downs for the first time.
The Chad Brown-trained 3 year-old has raced just four times in his career, with these coming at Aqueduct (twice), Fair Grounds and last time out (watch below) when winning the 100th running of the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, with Just A Touch back in second.
Sierra Leone is one of the Kentucky Derby runners with three wins in four starts. His only defeat came in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct back in December at the hands of Dornoch, who he may face on the track again.
However, he’s been handed Kentucky Derby post position draw 2, and the last winner from that gate was Affirmed in 1978.
The other main contender based on the current Kentucky Derby odds is Fierceness. He’s also going to be racing at Churchill Downs for the first time.
This classy Todd Pletcher-trained City Of Light colt has so far raced at Saratoga, Belmont, Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park (twice), where he was last in action romping away with the Florida Derby (watch below).
Since 2006, the Florida Derby has been a top Kentucky Derby prep race – with six winners also taking in that Gulfstream Park race (5 won both).
Fireceness will run in saddle cloth number 17, but due to the scratching of Encino will move to gate 16 where there’s been five winners in the last 30 years.
We Also Have Two Kentucky Derby Runners From Japan
The 2024 Kentucky Derby will also have another ‘Far East’ feel to it this year as Japanese runner Forever Young, who qualified for the race after winning the UAE Derby at Meydan (watch below), is expected to make the trip across the Pacific.
This Real Steel colt is unbeaten in five races and will be looking to create some Run For The Roses history and become the first horse from Japan to win the first leg of the US Triple Crown.
He is also joined by another Japan runner in T O Password, who qualified via the Japan Road To The Kentucky Derby, while it will come as no surprise that both Japanese runners are yet to race at Churchill Downs.
Stronghold Alone From Kentucky Derby Runners Brings a 100% Winning Track Record To The Race
We can also see from the horses with previous Churchill Downs form table, that it’s only the Philip D’Amato-trained Stronghold that brings a 100% track record to the 2024 edition of the Kentucky Derby.
That said, he’s only raced at the course once before, that resulted in a win, when landing a Maiden Special Weight here back in October 2023.
Honor Marie, West Saratoga & Track Phantom Are The Most Experienced At Churchill Downs
The other standout 2024 Kentucky Derby runners with excellent Churchill Downs form are Honor Marie, West Saratoga and Track Phantom.
The trio have won four times between them at the course (from nine runs) and are all yet to finish out of the first three.
- Honor Marie – Churchill Downs Runs: 3 (1st, 2nd, 1st)
- West Saratoga – Churchill Downs Runs: 3 (2nd, 2nd, 1st)
- Track Phantom – Churchill Downs Runs: 3 (3rd, 1st, 2nd)
Honor Marie has shown a big liking for the Churchill Downs track with two wins and a second from his three starts there. The biggest of those successes came in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November (watch below).
West Saratoga is another Kentucky Derby horse that is yet to finish outside the first two at Churchill Downs, with a win and two silvers from his three starts there.
His two runners-up finishes came in Maiden Special Weights in the first half of 2023, but the Larry Demeritte horse built on that to win the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes there last September (watch below).
Track Phantom ran in three Maiden Special Weights at Churchill Downs back in late 2023 – finishing third on the first of those and then progressing a place each time until winning the last. He’s since gone on to win the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes and finish fourth in the Louisiana Derby – both at Fair Grounds.
Is Having Churchill Downs Experience a Positive or Negative?
Finally, to end we thought we’d look whether having raced at Churchill Downs in the past has given past Kentucky Derby winners an advantage. It’s a safe assumption, right?
Well, the quick answer, based on the Kentucky Derby trends is no, not really. This is backed up with 10 of the last 12 winners having NOT raced at Churchill Downs before – which works out at a 83% return.
The two that defied this stat were the shock winner in 2022 Rich Strike and 2021 hero Mandaloun, who both won a Maiden Special Weight at the course before winning the Run For The Roses. While the most recent Kentucky Derby winner – Mage, who won the race in 2023, was making his Churchill Downs debut.
Look For A Recent Run at Gulfstream Park or Santa Anita
In fact, the recent stats also tell us that it could pay to note the horses that had raced at either Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita last time out as seven of the last 12 winners were in action at one of these tracks in their last races (58%)
The 2024 Kentucky Derby runners that were in action at either Santa Anita or Gulfstream Park in their most recent outing are – Fierceness (Gulfstream), Catalytic (Gulfstream) and Grand Mo The First (Gulfstream), who all ran in the Floria Derby.
While, Stronghold (Santa Anita) was last seen winning the Santa Anita Derby in early April (watch below).
