Put history on your side by using our Kentucky Derby trends 2024 to help find the winner of the big May 4 Churchill Downs race. These key stats will highlight the best profile of recent winners. For example – did you know, the last 12 Kentucky Derby winners all came from gate 5 or higher?
Kentucky Derby Trends: Churchill Downs Stats For The Last 12 Runnings
It’s the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in 2024, so whichever horse lands the famous ‘Run For The Roses’ renewal will cement their name into the US horse racing hall of fame.
Twelve months ago, we saw the Gustavo Delgado-trained Mage win the race under jockey Javier Castellano – seeing off Two Phil’s and the favorite Angel Of Empire, but failed to win another race and has since been retired to stud.
But to help you find the Churchill Downs winner, we’ve been back over the last twelve runnings to showcase the main Kentucky Derby trends 2024 that will assist you in finding the best profile of horse – based on previous heroes.
For example, ALL of the last 12 Kentucky Derby previous winners ran in the last seven weeks, while the favorite has a decent 50% strike-rate in the last 12 editions.
Kentucky Derby Trends 2024
- 12/12 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
- 12/12 – Drawn gate 5 or higher
- 12/12 – Won by a US bred horse
- 11/12 – Favorites made the show
- 10/12 – Never won at Churchill Downs before
- 10/12 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before
- 9/12 – Had won over at least 1m1f before
- 8/12 – Won last time out
- 7/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
- 7/12 – Won 3 or more times before
- 6/12 – Winning Kentucky Derby favorites (but not since 2018)
- 6/12 – Drawn between gates 5-8 (inclusive)
- 5/12 – Drawn between gates 13-19 (inclusive)
- 4/12 – Ran at Gulfstream Park last time out
- 3/12 – Came into the race unbeaten
- 3/12 – Ran at Santa Anita last time out
- 2/12 – Trained by Doug O’Neill
- 2/12 – Ridden by John Velazquez
- There has NEVER been a winner from gate 17
Kentucky Derby Trainer Stats
- Bob Baffert has won the race 6 times before (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020)
- Todd Pletcher has won the race twice before (2010 & 2017)
- Brad H. Cox has won the race once before (2021)
- John Shirreffs has won the race once before (2005)
When is the Kentucky Derby 2024?
The 2024 Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday, May 4 at Churchill Downs racetrack.
- 📅Time/Date: 6:45pm, Saturday May 4, 2024
- 🏇Racecourse: Churchill Downs
- 💰 Purse/Winner: $5m / $3.1m
- 📺 TV: NBC (Live Stream: You Tube, Peacock, fuboTV)
- 🎲 Kentucky Derby Odds: Sierra Leone +300 | Fierceness +350 | Forever Young +800
Kentucky Derby Trends 2024 Analyzed
We take a deeper dive into the main Kentucky Derby trends and stats. Then once the final Kentucky Derby horses 2024 are announced in the build-up to the race, you can apply these stats to each one. Let’s see what they say:
Post Positions 1 and 2 Don’t Have Great Records
Horses with low Kentucky Derby post positions don’t have the best of records in recent years.
Many horse racing fans believe this is due having a bigger than normal field size (20 runners), which makes it harder for those on the inside to break quick and then either getting caught up in traffic at the back. Or if they do break well, using up too much early energy to get a good position which can take it’s toll in the second half of the race.
This is backed up with post position 1 not having a Kentucky Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986, while gate 2’s last winner of the Run for the Roses was Affirmed in 1978, who went onto land the Triple Crown that season.
Gates 5-8 and 13-19 Have Seen Top Returns
You can take this Kentucky Derby post position trend further by knowing that 11 of the last 12 winners also came between either gates 5-8 or 13-19.
Yes, 50% of the last 12 winners hailed between stalls 5-8, while 42% were between 13-19.
This was backed up again in 2023 with Mage winning from gate 8, with Rich Strike (20) the only horse in recent times to defy this Kentucky Derby trend.
However, from this batch it’s worth knowing that gate 17 is yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner in the history of the race – so let’s rule this one out.
Therefore, in short, we are looking for horses from gates 5, 6, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18 and 19.
Kentucky Derby Post Positions Wins Since 1994 (30 Years)
| Post Position |
Number Of Wins |
Strike-Rate (%) |
| 1 | 0 | 0% |
| 2 | 0 | 0% |
| 3 | 1 | 3.33% |
| 4 | 1 | 3.33% |
| 5 | 4 | 13.33% |
| 6 | 1 | 3.33% |
| 7 | 3 | 10% |
| 8 | 4 | 13.33% |
| 9 | 0 | 0% |
| 10 | 1 | 3.33% |
| 11 | 0 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 1 | 3.33% |
| 14 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 5 | 16.66% |
| 16 | 5 | 16.66% |
| 17 | 0 | 0% |
| 18 | 0 | 0% |
| 19 | 2 | 6.66% |
| 20 | 2 | 6.66% |
Carefully Consider California-Based Horses
The Churchill Down stats for the Run For The Roses also showcase to us that the horses from the West Coast and state of California have to be taken very seriously.
Why is this? Well, a huge 7 of the last 12 Kentucky Derby winners travelled over from Californian-based barns.
Look Out For The Florida Derby Winner
The best Kentucky Derby prep race of late is the Florida Derby, which was run this year on March 30 and won by the Todd Pletcher-trained Fierceness (watch below).
As a result, it’s no shock to see the City Of Light colt, who is owned by Mike Repole, as one of the favorites in the Kentucky Derby betting.
The Florida Derby, which is held at Gulfstream Park, has seen five horses since 2006 go on to Kentucky Derby glory.
Last year’s winner was Forte, who was the 2023 Kentucky Derby favorite right up until the day of the race until being a late scratching due to a failed drug test.
This stat, however, is still showing a decent 29% return over that 17-year period. While this would have actually been better still had the 2019 Florida Derby winner Maximum Security hadn’t got disqualified at Churchill Downs.
Last year’s Florida Derby runner-up Mage, went onto win the Kentucky Derby, so suggest it’s worth looking at this race in general.
Florida/Kentucky Derby Double Winners Since 2006
- Barbaro (2006)
- Big Brown (2008)
- Orb (2013)
- Nyquist (2016)
- Always Dreaming (2017)
The Kentucky Derby Favorite Must Be Respected
12 months ago,we saw the Kentucky Derby favorite Angel Of Empire finish third but overall in recent times the market leader still has a terrific record – winning 50% of the last 12 renewals.
We’ve also seen a massive 11 of the last 12 (92%) of the last 12 favorites placed, to suggest punters are not too far off the mark in this race.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby favorite is likely to be the Todd Pletcher-trained Fierceness.
Churchill Downs Course Form Not Essential
Coming into the Kentucky Derby having raced at Churchill Downs is also not essential. This is supported with 10 of the last 12 winners having never raced at the course and 83% of the last 12 yet to win there.
However, you can see which 2024 Kentucky Derby runners have already raced at Churchill Downs.
Look For Last Time Out Winners With Form Over at Least 1m1f
Last year Mage came into the race having raced second Florida Derby, but recent winners have a top record with 8 of the last 12 ticking this stat.
While, finally, with the Kentucky Derby run over a trip of 1m2f, then having proven winning form in-and-around the trip is also a big plus.
In the last 12 runnings we’ve seen 75% winners having already tasted success over 1m1f+.
Trainer Bob Baffert Has Won The Kentucky Derby Six Times
The Bob Baffert barn have racked up six Kentucky Derby wins over the years and as a result sit joint top in the all-time winners list with Ben Jones. Therefore, the Baffert team need just one more Run For The Roses success to take the lead in their own right.
Baffert’s first Kentucky Derby win came in 1997 with Silver Charm, with his most recent in 2018 with the last Triple Crown winner Justify.
However, due to a ban on having runners at Churchill Downs at the moment, we won’t be seeing any Baffert-trained runners in the Kentucky Derby in 2024.
Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
See the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds that you can get by joining up with the best Kentucky Derby betting sites in the US:
- Dornoch: +2000
- Sierra Leone: +300
- Mystik Dan: +2000
- Catching Freedom: +800
- Catalytic: +3000
- Just Steel: +2000
- Honor Marie: +2000
- Just a Touch: +1000
- Encino: 20-1 (scratched)
- T O Password: +3000
- Forever Young: +1000
- Track Phantom: +2000
- West Saratoga: +5000
- Endlessly: +3000
- Domestic Product: +3000
- Grand Mo the First: +5000
- Fierceness: +250
- Stronghold: +2000
- Resilience: +2000
- Society Man: +5000
Note: Odds are subject to change
Note: Others on request, but all current Kentucky Derby odds correct as of 09:00 ET on Wednesday, May 1 2024.
WATCH: Mage Winning The 2023 Kentucky Derby
Recent Winners Of The Kentucky Derby
See below the previous Kentucky Derby results, from 2007:
- 2023 – MAGE (152/10)
- 2022 – RICH STRIKE (81/1)
- 2021 – MANDALOUN (269/10)
- 2020 – AUTHENTIC (84/10)
- 2019 – COUNTRY HOUSE (65/1)
- 2018 – JUSTIFY (29/10 fav)
- 2017 – ALWAYS DREAMING (47/10 fav)
- 2016 – NYQUIST (23/10 fav)
- 2015 – AMERICAN PHAROAH (29/10 fav)
- 2014 – CALIFORNIA CHROME (5/2 fav)
- 2013 – ORB (11/2 fav)
- 2012 – I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (153/10)
- 2011 – ANIMAL KINGDOM (209/10)
- 2010 – SUPER SAVER (8/1)
- 2009 – MINE THAT BIRD (51/1)
- 2008 – BIG BROWN (12/5 fav)
- 2007 – STREET SENSE (49/10 fav)
