Kentucky Derby trifecta picks are exotic wagers on horses to finish in the first three positions in the race. To win a standard trifecta bet, you must predict the precise order of the horses coming first, second and third. Other variants, which we cover in this guide, are a little more relaxed.
The odds of nailing a trifecta can be considerably high, so large payouts are often shared among winning bettors. Our experts have provided their top trifecta picks for Churchill Downs – as well as some helpful information for making yours.
A Kentucky Derby trifecta wager is a pari-mutuel horse racing exotic bet placed on “The Run for the Roses.” Just to recap, it involves predicting the three horses that will win, place, and show in order of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Winnings for successful bets made at Kentucky Derby sportsbooks and racebooks are divided and shared among all successful wagers.
There are several different variants of Kentucky Derby trifecta picks you can make. These include the following.
Odds, costs, and potential payouts differ depending on the type you choose. For this reason, it’s always worth keeping your bankroll in mind before learning how to bet on Kentucky Derby trifectas.
Kentucky Derby trifecta picks don’t get easier than a straight. To win this wager, you must choose three horses to finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in perfect order. If you want to bet 4, 9, and 12, for example, they must finish in that sequence according to the official Kentucky Derby results of the race.
With straight trifectas, there is no payout for any other combination of those numbers. 9-4-12, or 12-4-9, for instance, are losers. Other types of tricast bets are more forgiving but do carry extra costs.
Also known as a reverse horse trifecta or box trifecta, this multiple bet allows your three picks to finish in any order once they occupy 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Instead of betting 4, 9, and 12 in that order, any combination of the three will pay. This could include any of the six following permutation:
Countering the upside of having more potential winning scenarios is the fact that each must be covered. This means a boxed trifecta – with six possible winning permutations – may cost $12 instead of the standard $2 for one bet on the precise order of the three horses. This is because a full payout for a winning trifecta is due should any of the above sequences come in.
It is also possible to select more than three horses in your box – this includes key boxes and power boxes. You can potentially select up to 12 horses with any of 1,320 different combinations winnable. However, with each one costing $2 per wager, this could end up parting you with a cool $2,640 for your tickets.
These are an excellent way to add some further spice to proceedings. A trifecta key works by identifying a “key” horse to finish in first place – then, you select two or more other horses that could come in 2nd and 3rd. Here’s an example of a simple key.
Some of the clear advantages of using trifecta keys are cost and purpose. Boxes of four selections have more sequences covered, meaning you pay $24 rather than the $6 for the key. They also allow bettors to have one main horse and a few contenders not on that animal’s level.
Remember to confirm Kentucky Derby post positions to ensure you pick the right numbers. Furthermore, it is wiser to make the horse you consider the strongest as the key.
There are two main types of trifecta wheels – these are known as full and partial wheels. Full wheels allow you to Kentucky Derby trifecta predictions into potential cash by selecting one horse to finish 1st and backing all potential combinations for 2nd and 3rd with your other selections.
Partial, or part wheel trifectas, work a little differently. These involve whittling things down to your #9 to win horse and three other suitable candidates to occupy 2nd and 3rd.
This reduces the stake and allows you to pick horses that are genuine contenders, rather than those less likely to feature in Kentucky Derby payouts history going forward. Such is the beauty of wheeling a trifecta.
Now that we have confirmation of post positions and Morning Line odds ahead of this year’s race, our experts step up. You will find Kentucky Derby picks across the site.
The draw for post positions happened this year on Saturday, April 27 at Churchill Downs and we are expecting most racebooks to have updated odds by the following Monday.
The three horses in our experts’ Trifecta box for the Kentucky Derby this year are the Florida Derby winner Fierceness (17), Blue Grass Stakes victor Sierra Leone (2) and Arkansas Derby second Just Steel (6). Two of those were leading contenders from the futures odds, with a longshot thrown in alongside them.
After a hugely impressive success at Gulfstream Park, Fierceness is the one to beat. Only his Florida Derby win had the wow factor from all Kentucky Derby prep races after he made all the running unchallenged. The only initial concern was a draw in gate 17, which hasn’t produced a winner of this yet, but the scratching of Encino in post position 9 means he moves down one spot to 16.
Sierra Leone, meanwhile, has already beaten multiple contenders in this race en route to Churchill Downs. He must be high on any handicapper or bettor’s list for this race. A low draw and the poor record of Blue Grass winners from the Commonwealth’s other premier racetrack Keeneland are downsides.
Despite that, Sierra Leone has a good chance of providing the Chad Brown barn with their first-ever Kentucky Derby winner. His colors are perhaps better known in the UK and Ireland with John and Sue Magnier among the Coolmore partners that retain Aidan O’Brien as their trainer.
Just Steel chased home Muth in the Arkansas Derby when last in action, but represents the best of that form here. The winner is trained by Bob Baffert, who cannot have runners at Churchill Downs right now. Just Steel shaped well and showed improvement from his previous races at Oaklawn Park, however, so may surprise a few and make the show.
It almost goes without saying how competitive a race like the Kentucky Derby is. Betting a straight trifecta probably isn’t good strategy, so our experts recommend boxing these three horses for any order finishes. It’s a smart play to cover more bases.
Our expert handicappers look at more than Kentucky Derby trifecta odds before revealing their picks. Here is a quick breakdown of some of the key elements required to make solid trifecta projections for the big race.
A fun exotic bet, a trifecta is an excellent choice for those who are looking for an alternative to fixed odds wagers. Kentucky Derby trifecta payouts attract a lot of players to this bet type. They can amount to a lot of money for a relatively small outlay, as we saw with 2023’s payout.
In addition to being fun and potentially lucrative, trifectas are great for anyone who likes a challenge. Attempting to pinpoint not just the winning horse – but second and third behind the champion in perfect order – is about as tough as it gets. As previous Kentucky Derby winners have proven, it can be a lottery at the best of times!
Right here! Our Kentucky Derby betting experts provide free trifecta picks for the big race at Churchill Downs. You can get our hot picks for “The Run for the Roses” by selecting the “Free Kentucky Derby Trifecta Picks” on this page.
If you’re betting online, you’ll first need to sign up for a betting account. After that, head to the racebook and pick three horses and the order you think they’ll finish in the race. Put your stake down and cross your fingers! Other variants of trifecta bets allow you to choose several horses with all combinations covered. We talked about those earlier!
In 2023, the KD trifecta paid out $491.18 for anyone who had 8-3-14 with a 50 cents wager. For a Kentucky Derby trifecta payouts history going back to 2013, click on the “Payouts” tab on top of this page. Alternatively, this information is shared on the official Kentucky Derby website and in media releases.
Yes, there are several different variants and ways to make your Kentucky Derby trifecta picks. From straight trifectas to trifecta wheels, you can read about them on this page. Scroll up to find out more!
Many online racebooks and betting sites, plus land-based outlets including bet terminals at Churchill Downs, allow you to wager as little as 50 cents on a straight trifecta. Some sites may have different minimum stake rules, requiring you to bet $1. Check this info with the racebook customer support team you are wagering on.
One of the best strategy tips is pick a strong horse you believe can win and two that are likely to contest. You can turn to us for some of our best Kentucky Derby trifecta picks, as part of your strategy. Setting a bankroll, claiming bonuses, and betting at safe, offshore sportsbooks are other things that can help.
Our racebook reviewer Adam Haynes knows what best in class looks like and gives a balanced view of all those betting sites that appear here. If you want to know the pros and cons of wagering with a firm, he knows them from every angle.
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