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Welcome to our guide to Kentucky Derby superfecta picks. We’re going to explain how this type of bet works, the different variants and give you some advice as to how to be successful with this wager at the Kentucky Derby. Read on to find out more about a simple bet that gives you the chance to win big.

What is a Kentucky Derby Superfecta?

Kentucky Derby superfecta picks

A superfecta is type of bet in which the player must pick out the first four finishers in a race, in the correct sequence. It’s a tough bet to get right, especially for a race as competitive as this one, but the Kentucky Derby payouts can be huge if you pull it off.

There are some different types and variants of the superfecta wager, which we’re now going to explain to you so you understand them.

Superfecta Variants

As it is extremely difficult to pick the first four horses in the right order with a single bet, there are some versions that give you more of a chance of being successful.

They can be more expensive than just placing a single bet, but with small staking options available and the large size of any Kentucky Derby superfecta payout, they remain a great option. We discuss each of the following variants of this exotic wager below:

  • Superfecta Box
  • Superfecta Key
  • Superfecta Wheel

Superfecta Box

A superfecta box is where you pick four horses and cover every possible combination of them finishing in the top four. So every permutation of these four horses finishing in the top four is covered. They can finish in any order, as long as they’re in the top four.

If you pick four horses and cover every permutation of them finishing in the top four, there will be 24 bets in total. So, you could place a $1 bet per line and it would come to $24 in total. It’s obviously more expensive than picking out just one or two combinations, but massively increases your chances of winning.

Superfecta Key

With a superfecta key you pick one key horse that you think will win the race and then three additional horses, that you expect to finish in any order, in second, third and fourth positions.

So. with one key horse as your winner and the other Kentucky Derby picks finishing in any other combination, there are at least six  possible permutations. A superfecta key of this type would cost you $6 if you bet $1 per line.

You can also pick more than three horses to finish in the place positions. So, if you perm four horses to place alongside your key winner, it results in 24 bets. Five horses in the place positions increases it to 60 bets and six selections results in 120 bets.

Superfecta Wheel

A superfecta wheel gives you even greater options when it comes to perming the runners in the Kentucky Derby. With a superfecta full wheel you pick one horse as your key winner and then perm every other horse in the race, to finish in the remaining second, third and fourth places.

As you can imagine, this creates a lot of bets, so is perhaps not the best choice for a race like the Kentucky Derby, where there are lots of runners. Then there is a part wheel.

This is where you can be more selective regarding your wheel choices. So you might pick two horses to finish in the first place key, two to finish in the second place key, five in the third place key and six in the fourth place key, with every permutation covered.

Our Experts’ Kentucky Derby Superfecta Picks

Here is a rundown of four fancied horses in the Kentucky Derby this year that our experts expect to finish in the top four spots:

8-18-7-14

Journalism silks The Santa Anita Derby hero Journalism (8) looks a worthy favorite and the pick to win the race. If he reproduces his California form at Churchill Downs, then he will be hard to beat from a favorable post position of Gate 8.

Trainer Michael McCarthy has a leading contender as he seeks an elusive breakthrough win in the Kentucky Derby. Joining him at the head of the betting is Sovereignty (18) as Bill Mott and Godolphin combine with the Florida Derby second.

Sovereignty silks He does have a high post number in Gate 18 to overcome, yet should be right up there with fellow favored runner Journalism. The draw against him means our handicappers feel second place is his finishing spot.

Japan went close to a sensational first-ever win in the Kentucky Derby last year, so latest trans-Pacific challenger Luxor Cafe (7) looks a danger from the adjacent gate to Journalism.

Luxor Cafe silks Unlike Forever Young, who had already gone overseas and featured in that three-way photo finish 12 months ago, how he handles races abroad is unknown. A draw next to Journalism means Luxor Cafe can follow the favorite’s every move.

Last of the awesome foursome in our Superfecta for the Kentucky Derby is Tiztastic (14). Steve Asmussen’s Louisiana Derby winner should improve for the longer distance at Churchill Downs after bouncing back to form around the New Orleans Fair Grounds.

Tiztastic silks Tiztastic needed all of a mile as a juvenile by September and made the show behind Sovereignty here in the fall. His relatively high draw means he might just miss out on a top three finish, but still run well in defeat.

If any bettors seek a Super Hi-Five, then there’s an honorable mention for Ian Wilkes’s Burnham Square (9) after his Blue Grass Stakes win.

What Factors All Kentucky Derby Superfecta Predictions Consider

When handicappers access horses for their Kentucky Derby superfecta picks, they consider a number of factors. Here are some of the main aspects that will impact their choices:

  • Speed Figures – This measures how fast entrants ran in Kentucky Derby prep races. Past winners have often earned triple-digit speed ratings when warming up. Handicappers will study these closely.
  • Form in Prep Races – A series of high quality prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby give tipsters an idea of how horses may run at Churchill Downs. There are many of these from the previous fall to spring, so there are plenty of opportunities for horses to impress in such events.
  • Qualifying Points – Horses have to qualify for the Kentucky Derby through their performances in aforementioned prep races. Points awarded for top four finishers in these give an idea of who has done well on the road to Churchill Downs.
  • Post positions – The horses in the Kentucky Derby are drawn into gates, which can impact their chances. No runner coming out of gate 17 has ever won the race, while gate 10 has proved the be the most successful, with nine champions jumping from there.
  • Trainer Record – Any expert looking to make Kentucky Derby superfecta picks will consider the record of trainers. Some handlers have great records at this event, so this history must be taken into account. For example, Bob Baffert horses have won a record six Kentucky Derbies but he’s banned from having runners at Churchill Downs now.
  • Pedigrees & Breeding – Another aspect to take into account is the pedigree. A horse’s family tree is important. Do the sire (father) and/or dam (mother) have a record of producing quality foals? Or do they even have their own impressive history in the Kentucky Derby and other big races?

Why Do a Kentucky Derby Superfecta?

If you look through the Kentucky Derby superfecta payouts history, you’ll find that this is a bet that can bring you big rewards. The payout will at least be in the hundreds and can be as big as six-figures, depending on if it’s the favorites that are finishing in the top four places, or outsiders.

Whether it’s just a single superfecta bet for a little fun, or you take it more seriously and increase your chances, this is a worthwhile bet that can make your Derby day experience, extra special. Why not select your Kentucky Derby superfecta picks now?

FAQs

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