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Jamie Clark

This is precisely where to find free Kentucky Derby picks by experts and pro handicappers. They study all the form, speed figures and pedigrees of the thoroughbred racehorses heading to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, so you don’t have to.

Who Are the Kentucky Derby Favorites in 2025?

Without further ado, it’s time to launch right into the Kentucky Derby tips by looking at the most fancied runners first. They are where most bettors will focus their attention, after all.

Precisely who the favorite is in the latest Kentucky Derby odds will change as prep races and key trials come and go at other racetracks across America and the world. These horses are the leading contenders this year, however, and worth a closer look. Here’s what our Kentucky Derby handicapping experts have to say:

Journalism

Curlin colt representing the Michael McCarthy barn who cost $825,000 as a yearling. Won his last four races culminating in Grade I Santa Anita Derby success latest, coming with a late run. He’s now of the best picks for Kentucky Derby 2025 on both form and pedigree.

Sovereignty

Represents best of Florida Derby form now with winner Tappan Street out injured. Previously won Grade II Fountain Of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park and one of two in this for owner-breeders Godolphin. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won this before, so his colt among many experts’ top Kentucky Derby picks this year.

Sandman

Tapit colt costing $1,200,000 as a juvenile. Improved on Rebel Stakes show with Grade I victory in Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park latest. Mark Casse only missing a Kentucky Derby win from his resume to complete Triple Crown set. Obvious contender if building on prep race runs.

Luxor Cafe

Japan-based thoroughbred by Triple Crown hero American Pharoah. Won two races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby across the Pacific, so their leading hope. Looking to better Forever Young’s close third here 12 months ago. No surprise if he’s a Kentucky Derby prediction to win the big one this spring.

Burnham Square

Liam’s Map gelding and probably his barn’s most talented horse since Fort Larned. Came with late surge and landed Grade I Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland with his nose in front at the wire. Naturally among leading Kentucky Derby picks on that evidence and earlier defeat of Tappan Street in Holy Bull Stakes.

Kentucky Derby Picks And Analysis From Our Experts

Such is the variety of wagers you can place today, that it’s not just about finding winners. Visit any of the leading Kentucky Derby betting sites online and you’ll find lots of different wagering options on the racebook. That is also reflected in what we’ve asked of our experts.

Their Kentucky Derby selections don’t just cover an outright win in the futures betting on the big race, but top 3 picks to make the show and even longshot outside bets on horses that might surprise a few and outrun their odds. Here are their predictions in these three areas:

Kentucky Derby Picks to Win

Any win only wager is precisely that. The chosen horse with a Kentucky Derby prediction such as this must finish first (or be awarded the race on the day). Anything less and it was the wrong call. That is the only way to receive Kentucky Derby payouts on such a bet.

Journalism

Journalism silks The long-time and Morning Line favorite Journalism is the obvious place to start for bettors. Impressive in the Los Alamitos Futurity before Christmas, he picked up where he left off as a juvenile with spring wins in two key Kentucky Derby prep races at Santa Anita Park.

Both of his latest California wins suggest he has strong claims here. From last at halfway in the Santa Anita Derby to first at the wire, he initially seemed outpaced only for stamina to kick in when he kept on real strong.

A repeat of that run over an extra furlong at Churchill Downs must see Journalism go close once again. A middle gate post position should be just fine.

Kentucky Derby Top 3 Picks

They call second spot in a horse race placing and finishing third showing. You can wager in pari-mutuel betting pools on these outcomes, i.e. a top 2 or top 3 finish. The beauty of that is you don’t just have to find Kentucky Derby winners, but those in the first two or three.

You can also cover more bases. A smart gambling option to explore with the best Kentucky Derby picks is the Across The Board bet (ATB). This is where you wager on the same horse for a win, place and show, but put down treble your unit stake to cover each outcome.

Across The Board – Sovereignty

Sovereignty silks International owner-breeders Godolphin run a couple of horses in the Kentucky Derby this year with  Sovereignty the pick of that pair. A high gate from post position 18 probably isn’t ideal, but he looked as though he would relish this longer distance when placed in the Florida Derby.

With a graded win as a juvenile at Churchill Downs, we know he handles the track. Bill Mott has had a Kentucky Derby winner in his barn before too, so there’s lots to like about his runner.

Sovereignty looks a solid option for bettors looking to wager ATB on the Run for the Roses this year. East Avenue also represents Sheikh Mohammed’s operation.

Show Bet – Luxor Cafe

Luxor Cafe silks Our handicappers successfully called Japanese horse Forever Young making the show last year and feel Luxor Cafe can do the same. He has twice beaten subsequent UAE Derby scorer Admire Daytona on home soil.

While we don’t know for sure if Luxor Cafe travels, he won two official Kentucky Derby prep races on his side of the Pacific. Horse racing fans worldwide see more Japanese runners going overseas for big events on dirt and turf with each passing year.

Luxor Cafe is simply the latest name in that growing tradition. He arrives at Churchill Downs in terrific form with four consecutive wins like Journalism, so may well outrun his Morning Line odds.

Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks

You only have to go back a couple year to 2022 when Rich Strike recorded one of the most sensational Kentucky Derby results in the race’s history. He only snuck into the final field as a reserve when there was a late scratching, but defied final odds of 80-1 and won the race.

This was one of the biggest upsets in the storied history of Churchill Downs for sure. It proves that longshots and outsiders can confound all Kentucky Derby picks and analysis done by pro handicappers beforehand by pulling off a shock success.

Tiztastic

Tiztastic silks Steve Asmussen has gone close to Kentucky Derby glory in the past and Tiztastic looks a potential improver now stepping up in trip again. Twice in the top three at Churchill Downs before as a juvenile, he took his form to a new level when successful in the Louisiana Derby.

When punching his ticket to the Run for the Roses, Tiztastic turned about previous form. He lacked the gears for extended mile races, but could have even more to offer over 10 furlongs.

He needed a mile in early fall, so the way he has shaped since suggests the Kentucky Derby distance could result in further progress. Tiztastic jumps from Gate 14, between some of the favored runners and may pick them up in the stretch.

Exotic Kentucky Derby Picks by Experts

Now that we’ve dealt with what they call straight wagers, it’s time to move on exotic bets. These are more complicated and involve betting two or more horses in the Kentucky Derby to finish in the correct or any order.

While exotic bets like the Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta and Super High Five are all more difficult to win money off of than straight wagers, some are easier than others. The more horses required by the bet to finish in a set or any order, the tougher it is.

Kentucky Derby Exacta Picks

An Exacta requires two picked horses to finish first and second in the correct order. Bettors can cover any order by using the Quinella bet instead. It’s up to you if you cover all bases with our free Kentucky Derby picks on either wager, or just bet the two horses you like best.

Kentucky Derby Quinella – 8 & 18

There are two standout horses in the race this year, even if the draw could’ve been kinder to one of them. Journalism (8) and Sovereignty (18) are the obvious but logical Exacta or Quinella picks. The latter has a wide post position to overcome, but doesn’t know the stats and trends that say which gates are best.

Bettors are basically wagering on Journalism not meeting trouble near the fence round one of the turns. If he and Sovereignty run to form at Churchill Downs, then they should fight out the finish.

Kentucky Derby Trifecta Picks

The Trifecta involves three (or more) horses to finish first, second and third in a set order. When considering Kentucky Derby Trifecta picks, think about the increased difficulty.

This is a harder wager to pull off than Exactas and Quinellas as a result. Out experts build on the above selections for the Kentucky Derby in this next level exotic bet.

Trifecta Box Kentucky Derby 2025 – 7, 8 & 18

We’re going for the two favorites in Journalism (8) and Sovereignty (18), plus Japan’s hope Luxor Cafe (7) in a boxed Trifecta this year. There are six different permutations covered here. The unit stake wagered multiplies by six for the total gambled. These are the different finishing orders our bet covers:

  • 7-8-18
  • 7-18-8
  • 8-7-18
  • 8-18-7
  • 18-7-8
  • 18-8-7

Kentucky Derby Superfecta Picks

With a Superfecta, you need four (or more) horses to finish first, second, third and fourth. Again, the difficulty kicks up a notch. Anybody who can make correct Kentucky Derby predictions for the whole top four is doing something right and will win big if wagering on such a bet.

Kentucky Derby Superfecta Bet – 8-18-7-14

In our Superfecta this year are favored pair Journalism (8) and Sovereignty (18), plus Japan’s Luxor Cafe (7) and Louisiana Derby winner Tiztastic (14). Each of this foursome featured in Kentucky Derby tips for straight wagers above, so it makes sense they also appear here.

Kentucky Derby Super High Five Picks

The ultimate test of Kentucky Derby handicapping is the Super High Five. Even more demanding than a Superfecta, with this wager you must find the five horses that cross the wire first, second, third, fourth and fifth. Massive payouts are the reward for this incredibly rare feat.

Super High Five Bet – 8-18-7-14-9

There will be no living with our experts if they pull off a Super High Five, so here goes. Joining Journalism (8) and Sovereignty (18) in this wager are Luxor Cafe (7), Tiztastic (14) and the Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square (9).

Stats And Trends Behind Kentucky Derby Picks And Predictions

We all a bit of data, right? Well, when it comes to knowing how to bet on the Kentucky Derby, there are lots of statistics readily available to both bettors and handicappers. These can help you reach decisions about which horses to bet on and why.

  • Trainers & Jockeys – Certain barns and riders have been more successful at Churchill Downs than others. John Velazquez is the best of active Kentucky Derby jockeys with three winning mounts since 2011. Flavien Prat, meanwhile, has enjoyed a victory, a place and a couple shows in the saddle during the last five years.
  • Speed Figures – Bayer publish times and top speeds for every single horse lining up in the Kentucky Derby, so you can see who the fastest is.
  • Prep Races & Trials – Lots of Kentucky Derby prep races happen where the horses warm up en route to Churchill Downs. Look out for the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby in particular.
  • Post Positions – The draw when it is made can be key to a horse’s chances. A low gate from Kentucky Derby post positions is historically a disadvantage. Ideally, a middle draw is best.
  • Following Favorites – Six consecutive favorites did the business on the track at Churchill Downs from 2013 to 2018, but they haven’t fared so well since. Think about that before betting.

Where to Find the Kentucky Derby Predictions of Expert Handicappers

Top Kentucky Derby picks are ones that ultimately predict what will happen correctly. We may not be the only ones who make the right call come the first Saturday in May or for Triple Crown picks and tips. Let’s front up about it. There are other places you can go and read the views of expert handicappers on the big race.

Away from Kentucky Derby Betting Sites, check out respected sources like Daily Racing Form. They’ve been doing it for even longer than we have. The official website is also worth looking at for more wagering information.

Media outlets will have their own handicappers providing Kentucky Derby expert picks from national outfits to state-level and localized ones. These, along with dedicated horse racing websites, are all worth considering as you look for the winner.

Wherever you source your information from, everyone is doing the same thing. Handicappers analyze the same data and information, yet can often come to different conclusions. The reason for this is a race like the Kentucky Derby is as competitive as it gets and we all interpret things differently.

How We Make Kentucky Derby Expert Picks

We’re gonna let you into the secrets of how our handicappers come up with their selections for the big race. We asked them to tell us all about what goes into their best Kentucky Derby picks so that you understand their thinking:

Form

Foremost in our experts’ thoughts is what a horse has achieved on the track during The Road to the Kentucky Derby. While there’s a lot to be said for future potential, that is intangible. What you can definitely judge is how horses have shaped in their prep races and the caliber of opposition encountered in them. Whether you are making Kentucky Oaks picks or prefer to stick to the Derby, form matters.

The Draw

There’s no getting away from the fact that post positions can play a big part too. Get a gate draw too low and the jockey may have to rush their horse upfront too soon in the race, or risk losing out on the ideal spot where they want to be. Somewhere amongst middle post positions has proven best down the years.

Pedigree

As none of the qualifying races and recognized trials for the Kentucky Derby are actually over the same distance, a thoroughbred’s pedigree can give you clues about them. What you are looking for in their breeding isn’t just speed, but stamina. If any close relatives like the sire, dam or siblings have won at Churchill Downs or at least run well in this big race, they are positive signs.

FAQs

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Jamie Clark

Jamie Clark is an expert handicapper with more than a decade of experience in the gambling industry. He has found winners of races all over the world, including the biggest in America like the Kentucky Derby.