Who Is The Kentucky Derby Favorite 2025 Ahead Of 151st Running Of Churchill Downs Race?

 

The 151st edition of the ‘Run For The Roses’ will be on Saturday May 3 – so as race day approaches, we look at which horse is the current Kentucky Derby favorite 2025 – the first leg of the US Triple Crown at Churchill Downs.

Journalism Looking To Write The 2025 Kentucky Derby Headlines

With less than a month to go till the race the best Kentucky Derby racebooks have the Michael W. McCarthy-trained JOURNALISM as the Kentucky Derby favorite.

This Curlin colt shot to the head of the market after seeing off Kentucky Derby hype-horse Barnes in the San Felipe at Santa Anita (watch below) and this exciting 3 year-old showed that win was no fluke by following up in the Santa Anita Derby last time out (watch below).

Journalism will be hoping to go two places better than this sire Curlin, who took bronze in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, before landing the second leg of the US Triple Crown – the Preakness Stakes later that year.

Journalism Breeding: Sire and Dam Record

The 2007 Kentucky Derby third Curlin has sired winners of the Preakness, Belmont Stakes, and Breeders’ Cup Classic in the past – however, the Kentucky Derby has so far eluded the prodigy of the two-time Horse Of The Year.

Can Journalism become his first?

Journalism’s dam Mopotism is by Uncle Mo, who didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby but still won five of his eight career starts. With the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile here at Churchill Downs one of his highlights.

Journalism Race History and Recent Results

Heading into the 2025 Kentucky Derby, Journalism has raced five times – winning four.

His only defeat came on debut in a Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita (6f sprint) but hasn’t looked back since – winning all four of his next starts and progressing up the ranks each time.

He’s also now won at three different tracks so even though he’s yet to race at Churchill Downs, the signs of his versatility are good.

Jockey Umberto Rispoli has steered him in his last three wins and is expected to ride the current 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite as the Italian-born rider looks to win the Run For The Roses for the first time.

In his four wins, Journalism has posted a triple-digit Equibase Speed figure (105-106-110-108).

Journalism Horse Results

Overall Journalism will go to Churchill Downs as a worth 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite – priced around +350 at the head of the market.

He’ll also be looking to give trainer Michael W. McCarthy, who was the former assistant to Todd Pletcher, his first Kentucky Derby win.  Last year he saddled Endlessly to finish 9th.

While those looking for something to take Journalism on with might look to the size of the Kentucky Derby field as an unknown.

This is because all three of his recent wins have come in fields of only five runners and last year’s Churchill Downs field saw 20 entries head to post.

WATCH: Journalism Winning The San Felipe Stakes (1 March, 2025)

WATCH: Journalism Winning The Santa Anita Derby (5 April, 2025)

 

Santa Anita Derby A Decent Kentucky Derby Prep Race

When it comes to 2025 Kentucky Derby prep races the Santa Anita Derby has been a good guide for producing the winner in recent times.

This Grade1 has seen two winners follow up at Churchill Downs since 2012 – California Chrome (2014) and I’ll Have Another (2012).

This return increases further if you add in the 2018 Kentucky Derby hero Justify, the latest of the Triple Crown winners, who won the Santa Anita Derby, but was later disqualified.

The 2024 Santa Anita Derby winner was Stronghold, who went onto run seventh in the Kentucky Derby.

Santa Anita Derby Result 2025

Sovereignty and Luxor Cafe Just Behind The 2025 Kentucky Derby Favorite In The Betting

Just behind the 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism in the market are two horses – Sovereignty and Luxor Cafe – who are both around +700 in the market.

Sovereignty is trained by Bill Mott, whose only Kentucky Derby win came in 2019 with Country House.

This Into Mischief colt, who is owned by Godolphin, has won two of his five career starts and was a fine second in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park last time out (watch below) – with Tappan Street just ahead of him.

Luxor Cafe is another popular horse in the 2025 Kentucky Derby betting market, who is trained in the Far East and will be looking to the first Run For The Roses winner from Japan.

This 3 year-old is sired from the 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah so has the pedigree to go well.

He heads here having won his last four starts, with the most recent the Grade One Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama on 29 March (watch below).

Last year, the Japanese-trained Forever Young was well-fancied in the Kentucky Derby and ran a close third – beaten only a short-head.

When is the Kentucky Derby 2025?

The 2025 Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs racetrack. Plus, you can also keep tabs on the rest of the races with our complete Kentucky Derby schedule across the entire meet.

Who Was The Last Kentucky Derby Favorite To Win?

You have to go back to the 2016 running of the Kentucky Derby to find the last winning favorite in Justify, who returned the 29/10 market leader.

Meaning the race is on a run currently of NO winning favorite in the last six years.

Justify was trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Mike E. Smith and after his Churchill Downs win added his name in the US hall of fame as a Triple Crown winner after also taking the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

He retired to stud after that 2018 season – racing just six times in his career but was unbeaten and remains the last horse to win the US Triple Crown.

How Many Kentucky Derby Favorites Win?

Past Kentucky Derby results tell us that since 2007 (18 runnings) there have been eight winning favorites – which equates to a decent 44% strike-rate.

Between 2013 and 2018, there was also a good run for the market leader, with six winning favorites in a row.

Since then, however, Kentucky Derby payouts on the winner have been at bigger odds. These include an 81-1 outsider in Rich Strike in 2022, while the 2024 winner Mystik Dan returned 186/10.

The 2024 Kentucky Derby favorite was Fierceness, who could only manage 15th.

See below, with the winning Kentucky Derby favorite highlighted.

Kentucky Derby 2025 Betting Odds

See below the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, Journalism, Sovereignty and Luxor Cafe the three heading the market.

Note: Others on request, but all current Kentucky Derby odds correct as of 09:00 ET on Tuesday 15 April, 2025