Ahead of this weekend’s ‘Run For The Roses’ you can put history on your side by using our Kentucky Derby trends 2025. These key Churchill Downs stats will allow you to find the best horse profiles based on past winners on the race – meaning you might have a better chance of finding the winner.
For example – did you know, 12 of the last 13 Kentucky Derby winners came from gate 5 or higher?
Kentucky Derby Trends: Churchill Downs Stats For The Last 13 Runnings
It’s the 151st renewal of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in 2025 and come Sunday we’ll see another horse cement their name in the US hall-of-fame and join past winners of the race like Triple Crown winners Justify and American Pharoah.
Last year it was the Kenneth McPeek-trained Mystik Dan that become the latest horse to go into the Kentucky Derby history books – seeing off Sierra Leone and the Japanese raider Forever Young in a tight finish of noses.
However, Mystik Dan failed in his Triple Crown bid by running second in the Preakness Stakes two weeks later.
So, to you find the Churchill Downs winner, we’ve been back over the last thirteen runnings to showcase the main Kentucky Derby trends 2025 that will assist you in finding the best profile of horse – based on previous winners.
For example, ALL of the last 13 Kentucky Derby previous winners ran in the last seven weeks, while despite no winning favorite since 2018 – the market leaders have still won six of the last 13 (46%).
Kentucky Derby Trends 2025
- 13/13 – Ran in the last 7 weeks (100%)
- 13/13 – Won by a US bred horse (100%)
- 12/13 – Drawn gate 5 or higher (92%)
- 11/13 – Favorites made the show (85%)
- 11/13 – Never won at Churchill Downs before (85%)
- 11/13 – Never raced at Churchill Downs before (85%)
- 9/13 – Had won over at least 1m1f before (69%)
- 8/13 – Won last time out (62%)
- 8/13 – Ran in the last 5 weeks (62%)
- 7/13 – Won 3 or more times before (54%)
- 6/13 – Winning Kentucky Derby favorites (but not since 2018) (46%)
- 6/13 – Drawn between gates 5-8 (inclusive) (46%)
- 5/13 – Drawn between gates 13-19 (inclusive) (38%)
- 4/13 – Ran at Gulfstream Park last time out (31%)
- 3/13 – Trained by Bob Baffert (23%)
- 3/13 – Came into the race unbeaten (23%)
- 3/13 – Ran at Santa Anita last time out (23%)
- 2/13 – Trained by Doug O’Neill (15%)
- 2/13 – Ridden by John Velazquez (15%)
- There has NEVER been a winner from gate 17 (0%)
Kentucky Derby Trainer Stats
- Bob Baffert has won the race 6 times before (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020)
- D. Wayne Lukas has won the race 4 times (1999, 1996. 1995, 1988)
- Doug O’Neill has won the race twice before (2016 & 2012)
- Todd Pletcher has won the race twice before (2010 & 2017)
- Brad Cox has won the race once before (2021)
- John Shirreffs has won the race once before (2005)
When is the Kentucky Derby 2025?
The 2025 Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs racetrack.
- 📅Time/Date: 6:57pm (ET), Saturday May 3, 2025
- 🏇Racecourse: Churchill Downs
- 💰Purse/Winner: $5m / $3.1m (Kentucky Derby Purse Breakdown)
- 📺TV: NBC (Live Stream: You Tube, Peacock, fuboTV)
- 🎲Kentucky Derby Odds 2025: Journalism 3/1 | Sovereignty 5/1 | Sandman 6/1
Kentucky Derby Trends 2025 Analyzed
We take a deeper dive into the main Kentucky Derby trends and stats. Plus, now the final Kentucky Derby horses 2025 are announced, you can apply these stats to each one. Let’s see what they say:
Post Positions 1 and 2 Don’t Have Great Records
Horses with low Kentucky Derby post positions don’t have the best of records in recent years.
Many horse racing fans believe this is due having a bigger than normal field size (20 runners), which makes it harder for those on the inside to break quick and then either getting caught up in traffic at the back.
Or if they do break well, using up too much early energy to get a good position which can take its toll in the second part of the race.
This is backed up with post position 1 not having a Kentucky Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986, while gate 2’s last winner of the Run for the Roses was Affirmed in 1978, who went onto land the Triple Crown that season.
Last year’s winner Mystik Dan came out of gate 3. While the runner-up Sierra Leone almost defied stall 2 – being a nose back – with the third Forever Young coming out of gate 10.
Gates 5-8 and 13-19 Have Fair Recent Records Too
You can take this Kentucky Derby post position trend further by knowing that 11 of the last 13 winners also came between either gates 5-8 or 13-19.
Meaning a massive 85% of the last 13 winners were found between stalls 5-8 or 13-19.
However, from this batch it’s worth knowing that gate 17 is yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner in the history of the race – so most horse racing punters put a line through this horse. Which this year is the well-fancied Sandman for trainer Mark Casse.
Therefore, in short, we are looking for horses from gates 5, 6, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18 and 19.
Which is a plus for the hot 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism, who has been handed gate 8.
- 5 – Admire Daytona
- 6 – Luxor Cafe
- 7 – Journalism
- 8 – Burham Square
- 13 – Tiztastic
- 14 – Render Judgement
- 15 – Coal Battle
- 16 – Sandman
- 18 – Chunk Of Gold
- 19 – Owen Almighty
Kentucky Derby Post Positions Wins Since 1994 (31 Years)
| Post Position |
Number Of Wins |
Strike-Rate (%) |
| 1 | 0 | 0% |
| 2 | 0 | 0% |
| 3 | 2 | 6.50% |
| 4 | 1 | 3.23% |
| 5 | 4 | 13% |
| 6 | 1 | 3.23% |
| 7 | 3 | 9.60% |
| 8 | 4 | 13% |
| 9 | 0 | 0% |
| 10 | 1 | 3.23% |
| 11 | 0 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 1 | 3.23% |
| 14 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 5 | 16.12% |
| 16 | 5 | 16.12% |
| 17 | 0 | 0% |
| 18 | 0 | 0% |
| 19 | 2 | 6.50% |
| 20 | 2 | 6.50% |
Gates 15 and 16 Have The Best Kentucky Derby Records In The Last 31 Runnings
So, looking at the above table we can see that it’s Kentucky Derby post positions 15 and 16 that have the best records since 1994 – winning five each and ten between them.
This works out as a 16.12% return each, or if you couple these two gates it increases to a decent 32.24%
This year’s gate 15 horse is now Coal Battle after the scratching of Rodriguez has shifted things.
While the horse now in 16 is Sandman – they will be pleased as he did have the dreaded 17 gate, where no horse had ever won.
Carefully Consider California-Based Horses
The Churchill Down stats for the Run For The Roses also showcase to us that the horses from the West Coast and state of California have to be taken very seriously.
Why is this? Well, a huge 7 of the last 13 Kentucky Derby winners came over from Californian-based barns.
But last year’s winner (Ken McPeek) was trained in Lexington, Kentucky and Ocala Florida.
Look Out For The Florida Derby Winner
The best Kentucky Derby prep race of late is the Florida Derby, which was run this year on March 29 and won by the Brad Cox-trained Tappan Street (watch below).
However, this year’s winner Tappan Street WON’T be running in the 2025 Kentucky Derby – but the runner-up Sovereignty, for trainer Bill Mott, will.
Florida/Kentucky Derby Double Winners Since 2006
- Barbaro (2006)
- Big Brown (2008)
- Orb (2013)
- Nyquist (2016)
- Always Dreaming (2017)
The Kentucky Derby Favorite Must Be Respected
12 months ago, we saw the 2024 Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness finish well down the field in 15th – but in recent times the market leader still has a terrific record – winning 46% of the last 13 renewals.
We’ve also seen a massive 11 of the last 13 (85%) favorites placed, to suggest punters are not too far off the mark in this race.
The 2025 Kentucky Derby favorite is likely to be the Michael McCarthy-trained Journalism, who will be trying to give his Santa Anita-based barn their first win in the race.
Churchill Downs Course Form Not Essential
Coming into the Kentucky Derby having raced at Churchill Downs is also not essential.
This is backed up with 11 of the last 13 winners having never raced at the course and 85% of the last 13 yet to win there.
Respect Last Time Out Winners With Form Over at Least 1m1f
Last year Mystik Dan came into the race having raced third in the Arkansas Derby, but ‘last-time-out’ winners have a top record with 8 of the last 13 ticking this stat.
While, with the Kentucky Derby run over a trip of 1m2f, then having proven winning form in-and-around the trip is also a big plus.
In the last 13 runnings we’ve seen 69% winners having already tasted success over 1m1f+.
Since 2006, the Arkansas Derby has produced four winners – with American Pharoah the last horse to win both races.
This year’s Arkansas Derby was won by Sandman, with Publisher in second and Coal Battle in third (watch below).
Trainer Bob Baffert Has Won The Kentucky Derby Six Times
The Bob Baffert barn have racked up six Kentucky Derby wins over the years and as a result sit joint top in the all-time winners list with Ben Jones. Therefore, the Baffert team need just one more Run For The Roses success to take the lead in their own right.
Baffert’s first Kentucky Derby win came in 1997 with Silver Charm, with his most recent in 2018 with the last Triple Crown winner Justify.
With Baffert back from his Churchill Downs ban – the legendary handler is back in 2025. He runs two – Citizen Bull and Rodriguez (scratched) – as he searches for win number seven.
Kentucky Derby Betting Odds 2025
See the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds that you can get by joining up with the best Kentucky Derby betting sites in the US:
- 1 Citizen Bull 20-1
- 2 Neoequos 30-1
- 3 Final Gambit 30-1
- 4 Rodriguez (scratched)
- 5 American Promise 30-1
- 6 Admire Daytona 30-1
- 7 Luxor Cafe 15-1
- 8 Journalism 3-1
- 9 Burnham Square 12-1
- 10 Grande 20-1
- 11 Flying Mohawk 30-1
- 12 East Avenue 20-1
- 13 Publisher 20-1
- 14 Tiztastic 20-1
- 15 Render Judgement 30-1
- 16 Coal Battle 30-1
- 17 Sandman 6-1
- 18 Sovereignty 5-1
- 19 Chunk of Gold 30-1
- 20 Owen Almighty 30-1
- 21 Baeza 12-1
Note: Odds are subject to change
Note: Current Kentucky Derby odds correct as of 09:00 ET on Friday May 2 2025
WATCH: Mystik Dan Winning The 2024 Kentucky Derby
Recent Winners Of The Kentucky Derby
See below the previous Kentucky Derby results, from 2007:
- 2024 – MYSTIK DAN (186/10)
- 2023 – MAGE (152/10)
- 2022 – RICH STRIKE (81/1)
- 2021 – MANDALOUN (269/10)
- 2020 – AUTHENTIC (84/10)
- 2019 – COUNTRY HOUSE (65/1)
- 2018 – JUSTIFY (29/10 fav)
- 2017 – ALWAYS DREAMING (47/10 fav)
- 2016 – NYQUIST (23/10 fav)
- 2015 – AMERICAN PHAROAH (29/10 fav)
- 2014 – CALIFORNIA CHROME (5/2 fav)
- 2013 – ORB (11/2 fav)
- 2012 – I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (153/10)
- 2011 – ANIMAL KINGDOM (209/10)
- 2010 – SUPER SAVER (8/1)
- 2009 – MINE THAT BIRD (51/1)
- 2008 – BIG BROWN (12/5 fav)
- 2007 – STREET SENSE (49/10 fav)
