Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw 2024 & 30 Year Stats: Can Sierra Leone Overcome Luckless Gate?

With 20 horses looking to cement their names in the US hall of fame, the Kentucky Derby post position draw 2024 is vital and can, in theory, make or break the chances for the runners before the gates have even opened.

Read on as we take a look at the post positions handed out to ALL the runners, including the favorites Sierra Leone and Fierceness and if these will help or hinder their chances.

Plus, we look back at draw stats from the last 30 previous Kentucky Derby winners and each horse’s starting gate. These will give us a better idea what the best post positions are and where the winner is likely to come from.

Why Is The Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw So Important?

Like most US racetracks, Churchill Downs is left-handed oval-shaped track with four bends and two straights that is not dissimilar to an athletics track.

Therefore, with several turns to negotiate, plus a busy field of 20 Kentucky Derby horses, then having a good post position is key.

History backs this up too as there are several Kentucky Derby post positions that seemingly make it harder for the horses to win from – no matter how good they are.

To showcase this further, we took a look back at the last 30 editions of The Run For The Roses – giving the winning post positions and highlight the key positive (and negative) gates that have built up over this period.

How & When Are The Kentucky Derby Post Position Numbers Allocated?

The Kentucky Derby was first run in 1875, but it wasn’t until 1930 that the first-leg of the US Triple Crown started to use starting gates.

While it wasn’t until quite recently that TWO sets of gates were used, with one housing 14 horses and the other, which was called the ‘auxiliary gate’ having the other six runners. The gates, however, got a revamp in 2020 to ones that now hold all 20 runners.

A week before the race, which this year was on Saturday April 27, the Kentucky Derby post position draw is held – where each horse is picked at random against the 20 starting gates.

Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Mage, came from post position 8, with the runner-up Two Phil’s lower in gate 3 and the third Angel Of Empire in stall 12.

Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw 2024: Where Each Horse Will Be Starting From

Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw Results From The Last 30 Years

So, let’s take a look at the last 30 runnings of the Kentucky Derby and the winning (plus second and third) post positions.

Which Kentucky Derby Post Position Has The BEST Return In The Last 30 Years?

So, now we know the winning Kentucky Derby post positions for the last 30 years, just which numbers have cropped up the most?

See below the winning post positions since 1994 (last 30 runnings) with gates 15 and 16 topping the list of housing the most winners – with 5 each.

This works out at approx. 16.66% strike-rate for each gate, or if you combined the two this is a stonking 33% return for those that have bet on the horses from post positions 15 and 16 with the best Kentucky Derby betting sites over the years.

Next best has been the horses from gates 5 and 8, with four wins each and a 13.33% return and these numbers coupled would also have brought at 26% return.

Kentucky Derby Winning Post Positions Since 1994 (30 Years) & Strike-Rate

Gates 5, 7, 8, 15 & 16 Have a 70% Strike-Rate Since 1994

When working out how to bet on the Kentucky Derby online, you are not limited to wagering on just one horse.

With 20 runners heading to post you can increase your odds of finding the winner by betting on more than one horse.

One way of doing this is by coupling up the gates with the best strike-rates, which are 5, 7, 8, 15 and 16. These five gates have won a massive 70% of the last 30 runnings between them.

This year’s horses from these ‘hot post positions’ are.

Which Kentucky Derby Post Position Has The WORST Return In The Last 30 Years?

In contrast to the best Kentucky Derby post position, there are also gates that horses have struggled in, for whatever reason.

You can see from the table above that starting stalls 1, 2, 9, 11, 12, 14, 17 and 18 have not produced a single winner in the last 30 runnings.

While doing not much better are post positions 3, 4, 6, 10 and 13 with just the single success over this same period.

This year’s horses from these ‘cold post positions’ are.

What Post Position Does Big Fancy Sierra Leone Have?

The Chad C Brown barn are still looking for their first Run For The Roses winner, but many of the leading Kentucky Derby racebooks feel that could change in 2024 with Sierra Leone high up in the betting.

This well-bred Gun Runner colt has only tasted defeat once in the past from four runs and was impressive in winning the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 6. With another 2024 Kentucky Derby runner Just A Touch 1 1/2 lengths back in second that day (watch below).

However, the bad news for his supporters is that Sierra Leone was handed gate 2 in the Kentucky Derby post position draw 2024.

The race hasn’t seen a winner from stall 2 in the last 30 years – with the last winner from gate 2 the 1978 hero Affirmed, who was ridden by Steve Cauthen.

Fierceness Has A Top Draw Now (Thanks To a Scratching)

The other big talking horse ahead of the 2024 Kentucky Derby is Fierceness, who is owned by Mike Repole.

This Todd Pletcher-trained 3 year-old have been near the top of the betting since romping away with the Florida Derby on March 30 at Gulfstream Park (watch below).

However, those still wanting to bet on Fierceness didn’t get the best news when he was handed gate 17.

Why is this bad? Well, NO horse has EVER won the Kentucky Derby from post position 17 in the history of the race.

In fact, the last time a horse from gate 17 even finished in the top five was in 2005 (Don’t Get Mad). While not a single horse has finished in the top three from gate 17 since 1994.

But, due to the scratching of Encino (9), this moved all the horses below him up a post position. Meaning, even though Fierceness will still run with cloth number 17, he’ll now come out of gate 16.

This is top news as gate 16 has an excellent record with five wins in the last 30 years (17%). The new horse that will have the dreaded gate 17 will be Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold.

Gate 1 Also Has A Bad Record In The Kentucky Derby

Like gate 2, post position 1 also has a dire recent record in the race – with also no winners in the last 30 runnings since 1994.

The last winner from gate 1 was Ferdinand in 1986, while remarkably there has also only been ONE horse from gate 1 that have finished in the first three spots since in the last 30 years.

This year’s gate one horse is Dornoch, who will be trying to defy this terrible stat.

Why Have The Really Low Post Positions Struggled?

Being a turning track at Churchill Downs, then you’d think that having a low starting point would be a big plus. In theory there is less ground to cover than those drawn wider with a starting berth close to the inside rails.

However, this has proven to not be the case in the Kentucky Derby – backed up by the stats.

Why is this? Well, in races with less runners the lower drawn horses certainly have an advantage, but the Kentucky Derby is a race with 20 horses charging out of the gates. This leads to a busy opening section of the race with horses keen to get good early positions.

This in turn can lead to the horses drawn very low getting involved in a lot of traffic issues and getting quickly shuffled back. Or even if those drawn very low can blast out to maintain the inside rail, this would be using up a lot of valuable energy in the first part of the race that can take its toil later on.

The last winner from gate 3 was Real Quest in 1998, while we’ve also only had one winner from stall 4 in the last 30 years – that was Super Saver in 2010.

Many horse racing fans will have their own theories on why – but what we do know is that history tells us to be very wary of those drawn low – especially those from gates 1 and 2.

What About The Really High Kentucky Derby Post Positions?

Unlike the really low gates (1 & 2), the higher post positions have a slightly better record in the last 30 years – but only just.

In 2022 the big shock winner Rich Strike defied the 20 gate to win at 80-1, to join Big Brown, who also won from this berth in 2008.

However, these are the only two winners from gate 20 since 1994. There have also been two winners from stall 19 over that same period – I’ll Have Another (2012) and Country House (2019).

The Kentucky Derby 2024 horses from gates 19 and are 20 are as follows.

Frankie Dettori & Society Man Is Drawn 19

The 2024 Kentucky Derby will also have a lot of focus on Frankie Dettori, who is now riding in the US after having a retirement re-think last year.

Dettori has only ever ridden in the Churchill Downs race once, which came in 2000 on China Visit (6th). The pocket Italian has made no secret that he wants to add this Triple Crown race to his race achievements, but with Society Man being drawn gate 19 this makes life tough.

That said, we have seen two winners from gate 19 in the last 30 years – Country House (2019) and I’ll Have Another (2012). Can Dettori work his magic on this Danny Gargan-trained 3 year-old?

Post Positions 5, 13 & 16 Also Have Good Records Of Making The Show

In addition to post numbers 5, 7, 8, 15 and 16 having the best win records in the race, it could also pay to note that gates 5, 13 and 16 have top records of showing (top three finish) too.

Since 1994 (30 years) we’ve seen the horses from gate 5 in the show nine times, plus those from gate 13 and 16 also got in the top three 8 times each.

The 2024 Kentucky Derby horses from these berths, which you might want to use underneath in place, show or trifecta bets are.

Kentucky Derby Post Position Analyzed By Groups

With 20 Kentucky Derby runners we also thought it might help get a better idea of the hot gate areas over the last 30 runnings by grouping them into sections.

You can clearly see that post positions 1 to 4 have a poor return – with just two wins. While the same can be said for those between 9-12 with only the one winner based on these Kentucky Derby trends.

The higher draws between 17-20 also have a low return, with just the four winners since 1994.

So, as mentioned earlier it’s sections 5-8 (40%) and 13-16 (36.66%) that have by-far the best record of producing the Kentucky Derby winner.

Here are the horses that are running out of those gates.

Kentucky Derby Post Position Stats By Individual Gate (From 1994)

To end we summarize the record of each Kentucky Derby post position over the last 30 runnings and the horse that is coming out of that gate in 2024.

1 Post Position:

2 Post Position:

3 Post Position:

4 Post Position:

5 Post Position:

6 Post Position:

7 Post Position:

8 Post Position:

Post Position:

9 Post Position:

10 Post Position:

11 Post Position:

12 Post Position:

13 Post Position:

14 Post Position:

15 Post Position:

16 Post Position:

17 Post Position:

18 Post Position:

19 Post Position:

20 Post Position: