One way of trying to find the winning of the first leg of the US Triple Crown is to look at the best Kentucky Derby prep races 2025 – as over the years certain trial races have had a habit of throwing up the Churchill Downs winner.
What Are the Best Kentucky Derby Prep Races 2025?
With the 2025 running of the Kentucky Derby on the horizon (May 3), we look at which prep races have produced the most winners of the Run For The Roses in recent times.
Over the years, many of these races have been better ‘stepping stone’ contests than others, as The Road to the Kentucky Derby races have built up good records of producing winners of the first leg of the Triple Crown.
Therefore, this is certainly worth looking at in more detail and might help narrow your search for finding the 2025 winner with the best Kentucky Derby betting sites.
Kentucky Derby Prep Races for Winners Since 2006
Year |
Kentucky Derby Winner |
Trainer |
Previous Race
|
| 2024 | Mystik Dan | Kenneth McPeek | 3rd Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn Park) |
| 2023 | Mage | Gustavo Delgardo | 2nd Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park) |
| 2022 | Rich Strike | Eric Reed | 3rd Jeff Ruby Steaks (Turfway Park) |
| 2021 | Mandaloun | Brad Cox | 6th Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds) |
| 2020 | Authentic | Bob Baffert | 1st Haskell Stakes (Monmouth Park) |
| 2019 | Country House | Bill Mott | 3rd Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn Park) |
| 2018 | Justify | Bob Baffert | 1st (Dsq) Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita) |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | Todd Pletcher | 1st Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park) |
| 2016 | Nyquist | Doug O’Neill | 1st Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park) |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | 1st Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn Park) |
| 2014 | California Chrome | Art Sherman | 1st Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita) |
| 2013 | Orb | Claude R. McGaughey III | 1st Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park) |
| 2012 | I’ll Have Another | Doug O’Neill | 1st Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita) |
| 2011 | Animal Kingdom | H. Graham Motion | 1st Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (Turfway Park) |
| 2010 | Super Saver | Todd Pletcher | 2nd Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn Park) |
| 2009 | Mine That Bird | Bennie Woolley Jr. | 4th Sunland Derby (Sunland Park) |
| 2008 | Big Brown | Rick Dutrow Jr. | 1st Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park) |
| 2007 | Street Sense | Carl Nafzger | 2nd Toyota Blue Grass (Keeneland) |
| 2006 | Barbaro | Michael Matz | 1st Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park) |
What Was Mystik Dan’s Kentucky Derby Prep Race In 2024?
12 months ago, the Kenneth McPeek-trained Mystik Dan cemented his name in the Triple Crown history books – but just what Kentucky Derby prep race did he run in prior to glory?
Answer – Mystik Dan was third in the Arkansas Derby, which is run at Oaklawn Park, and it was exactly the same finish and race as the 2019 Kentucky Derby winner Country House took.
Ahead of Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby was the Bob Baffert-trained Muth (winner) and Just Steel (second), with the race run on March 30 last year and just over a month before the Kentucky Derby.
Muth didn’t run in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, but Just Steel was way back in 17th – meaning Mystik Dan overturned the Arkansas Derby form in dramatic fashion.
This year’s Arkansas Derby was won by the Mark E Casse-trained Sandman, but more on that below.
WATCH: Mystik Dan Winning The 150th Kentucky Derby in 2024
The Florida Derby Is Still One Of The Best Kentucky Derby Prep Races
Despite the Arkansas Derby producing last year’s Churchill Downs winner, the best Kentucky Derby prep race 2025 remains the Florida Derby.
When searching for The Run For The Roses winner, one race on The Road to the Kentucky Derby you simply can’t ignore is the Florida Derby.
Since 2006, the Gulfstream Park Grade I race has sent out five winners that have followed-up and the opening Triple Crown of the season. Which equates to a 26% strike-rate.
Yes, last year’s Florida Derby winner – Fierceness – could only manage 15th in the Kentucky Derby, having also been sent off at the Kentucky Derby favorite.
However, the good record of the Gulfstream Park race was backed up again in 2023 when the Florida Derby runner-up Mage went on to add his name to the Kentucky Derby winners roll of honour.
Meaning six of the last 19 Kentucky Derby winners contested the Florida Derby – giving the race a 32% strike-rate of finding the winner.
Oh, and this stat would have been even better had the 2019 Florida Derby winner Maximum Security not been disqualified from the final that year.
None of the other Kentucky Derby prep races 2025 can boast such a good return of providing the winner.
Florida Derby / Kentucky Derby Winners Since 2006
Year |
Horse |
Trainer |
Jockey |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez |
| 2016 | Nyquist | Doug O’Neill | Mario Gutierrez |
| 2013 | Orb | Bob Baffert | Joel Rosario |
| 2008 | Big Brown | Rick Dutrow Jr. | Kent Desormeaux |
| 2006 | Barbaro | Michael Matz | Edgar Prado |
15 Florida Derby Winners Have Won The Kentucky Derby
In addition to the five Florida Derby / Kentucky Derby winners since 2006, there have also been 15 horses in total over the years that have won both races (see below).
With the Florida Derby first run in 1952, it doesn’t come close to matching the deep history of Triple Crown events, yet the value as a key Churchill Downs trial is there for all to see.
The very first Kentucky Derby horse to record the double was Needles back in 1956, which was a win that started a trend of others following suit over the next 12 years (see below).
In more recent times, Nyquist in 2016 and Always Dreaming in 2017 are currently the last two horses to win both races.
Plus, as mentioned the 2023 Kentucky Derby result saw Mage, who was runner-up in the Florida Derby, further support the good record of the Gulfstream Park race.
Every Florida Derby / Kentucky Derby Winners
Year |
Horse |
Trainer |
Jockey |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez |
| 2016 | Nyquist | Doug O’Neill | Mario Gutierrez |
| 2013 | Orb | Bob Baffert | Joel Rosario |
| 2008 | Big Brown | Rick Dutrow Jr. | Kent Desormeaux |
| 2006 | Barbaro | Michael Matz | Edgar Prado |
| 2001 | Monarchos | John T.Ward Jr. | Jorge Chavez |
| 1995 | Thunder Gulch | D. Wayne Lukas | Mike Smith |
| 1990 | Unbridled | Carl Nafzger | Pat Day |
| 1984 | Swale | Woody Stevens | Laffit Pincay Jr. |
| 1979 | Spectacular Bid | Bud Delp | Ronnie Franklin |
| 1968 | Forward Pass | Henry Forrest | Don Brumfield |
| 1964 | Northern Dancer | Horatio Luro | Bill Shoemaker |
| 1961 | Carry Back | Jack A. Price | Johnny Sellers |
| 1958 | Tim Tam | Horace A. Jones | Bill Hartack |
| 1956 | Needles | Hugh L. Fontaine | David Erb |
Which Horse Won The 2025 Florida Derby?
So, with the Florida Derby being one of the big Kentucky Derby prep races 2025 – the million-dollar question is, which horse won this year’s renewal?
Answer – TAPPAN STREET.
You can watch the replay of the 2025 Florida Derby below – with the Brad Cox-trained Tappan Street seeing off Godolphin’s Sovereignty.
Therefore, it’s no shock to see both horses having prominent Kentucky Derby odds with the best racebooks in the US.
Brad Cox’s only Kentucky Derby win came in 2021 with Mandaloun.
Plus, as mentioned, the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage was runner-up in the race, so it’s also worth noting EVERY horse that ran this Gulfstream Park race.
Florida Derby Result 2025
Position |
Horse
|
Trainer |
Jockey
|
| 1st | TAPPAN STREET | Brad Cox | Luis Saez |
| 2nd | Sovereignty | William Mott | Manuel Franco |
| 3rd | Neoequos | Saffie A Joseph Jr | Edgar J Zayas |
| 4th | Madaket Road | Bob Baffert | Mike E Smith |
| 5th | Disruptor | Todd Pletcher | Irad Ortiz Jr |
| 6th | Jimmy’s Dailys | Brian A Lynch | Joel Rosario |
| 7th | Indecisiveness | Ruben Sierra | Jorge Ruiz |
| 8th | Cool Intentions | Jorge Delgardo | Javier Castellano |
| 9th | Smoken Boy | Cheryl Winebaugh | Edgar Perez |
| 10th | Enterdadragon | Jose Francisco D’Angelo | Dylan Davis |
WATCH: Tappan Street Winning The 2025 Florida Derby
Florida Derby Winners Since 2006
See below the full list of Florida Derby winners since 2006 and where they placed in the Kentucky Derby later that season.
Over the 18 year-period, there have been five horses that followed-up in the Run For The Roses. While only four didn’t run at Churchill Downs.
We’ve also seen eight of the last 19 Florida Derby winners go onto finish in the top six in the Kentucky Derby, which equates to a 42% return.
However, last year’s winner Fierceness was only 17th in the Kentucky Derby.
Year |
Florida Derby Winner |
Trainer |
Kentucky Derby Finish
|
| 2024 | Fierceness | Todd Pletcher | 17th |
| 2023 | Forte | Todd Pletcher | Didn’t Run (Late Scratch) |
| 2022 | White Abarrio | Saffie A Joseph Jr. | 16th |
| 2021 | Known Agenda | Todd Pletcher | 8th |
| 2020 | Tiz The Law | Barclay Tagg | Didn’t Run (Won Belmont Stakes) |
| 2019 | Maximum Security | Jason Servis | 1st (Disqualified, placed 17th) |
| 2018 | Audible | Todd Pletcher | 3rd |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | Todd Pletcher | 1st |
| 2016 | Nyquist | Doug O’Neill | 1st |
| 2015 | Materiality | Todd Pletcher | 6th |
| 2014 | Constitution | Todd Pletcher | Didn’t Run |
| 2013 | Orb | Claude R. McGaughey III | 1st |
| 2012 | Take Charge Indy | Patrick B. Byrne | 19th |
| 2011 | Dialled In | Nick Zito | 8th |
| 2010 | Ice Box | Nick Zito | 2nd |
| 2009 | Quality Road | James A Jerkins | Didn’t Run |
| 2008 | Big Brown | Richard E. Dutrow Jr. | 1st |
| 2007 | Scat Daddy | Todd Pletcher | 18th |
| 2006 | Barbaro | Michael Matz | 1st |
Santa Anita Derby Another Decent Kentucky Derby Prep Race
Next best when it comes to Kentucky Derby prep races 2025 is the Santa Anita Derby, which was run this year on April 5.
This Grade 1 race, which is run at Santa Anita Park in California, has seen two winners follow up at Churchill Downs since 2012 – California Chrome (2014) and I’ll Have Another (2012).
This return increases if you add in the 2018 Kentucky Derby hero Justify, the latest of the Triple Crown winners, who won the Santa Anita Derby that year, but was later disqualified.
Last year’s winner was Stronghold, who went onto run 7th in the Kentucky Derby.
The 2025 Santa Anita Derby winner was the current 2025 Derby favorite Journalism (watch below). He’s trained by Michael W McCarthy, who has never won the Run For The Roses.
Santa Anita Derby Result 2025
Position |
Horse
|
Trainer |
Jockey
|
| 1st | Journalism | Michael McCarthy | Umberto Rispoli |
| 2nd | Baeza | John Shirreffs | Hector I Berrios |
| 3rd | Westwood | John Shirreffs | Tiago Josue Pereira |
Respect The Arkansas Derby Form Too
The Arkansas Derby should also be respected as this Oaklawn Park contest has also seen a nice return when it comes to producing winner and finding an angle on how to bet on the Kentucky Derby online.
This is supported with three horses since 2010 running in that race before winning The Run For The Roses. These were Super Saver, who was second in the Arkansas Derby in 2010, American Pharoah, who won both races, and Country House, who took bronze in the 2019 Oaklawn race before heading to Churchill Downs.
While as mentioned earlier – last year’s Arkansas Derby third Mystik Dan went onto win the Derby.
Sandman won this year’s Arkansas Derby, which was run on March 29 (watch below).
Arkansas Derby Result 2025
Position |
Horse
|
Trainer |
Jockey
|
| 1st | Sandman | Mark Casse | Jose L Ortiz |
| 2nd | Publisher | Steven Asmussen | Flavien Prat |
| 3rd | Coal Battle | Lonnie Briley | Juan P Vargas |
Kentucky Derby 2025 Race Details
The 2025 Kentucky Derby will be staged on Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs racetrack.
- 📅Time/Date: 6:45pm (ET), Saturday May 3, 2025
- 🏇Racecourse: Churchill Downs
- 💰Purse/Winner: $5m / $3.1m
- 📺TV: NBC (Live Stream: You Tube, Peacock, fuboTV)
- 🎲Kentucky Derby Odds 2025: Journalism+350 | Sovereignty +700 | Luxor Cafe +700
Kentucky Derby Prep Races 2025 to Be Cautious Of
Away from the top billing of the Florida Derby, there are also several other Kentucky Derby prep races 2025 that we should also be cautious of. Most notably, the Blue Grass Stakes, run at Keeneland and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
The last horse to have run in the Blue Grass (came 2nd) and win the Kentucky Derby was Street Sense in 2007. While the last horse to take both races was Strike Gold way back in 1991.
Tapit Trice landed the Blue Grass in 2023 among his Kentucky Derby prep races. However, could only run seventh at Churchill Downs.
But last year’s Blue Grass Stakes winner – Sierra Leone – ran a blinder in the Derby to finish a close second.
This year’s Blue Grass winner, which was run on April 8 and was won by the Ian Wilkes-trained Burnham Square (watch below)
Toyota Blue Grass Result 2025
Position |
Horse
|
Trainer |
Jockey
|
| 1st | Burnham Square | Ian Wilkes | Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr |
| 2nd | East Avenue | Brendan P Walsh | Luan Machado |
| 3rd | River Thames | Todd Pletcher | Irad Ortiz Jr |
Then, the Wood Memorial also doesn’t have the best record. You need to go back to 2003 (Funny Cide) to see the last horse to have run in the Aqueduct contest and win then land the Kentucky Derby.
With the last horse to win both races being the Neil Drysdale-trained Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.
The 2024 Wood Memorial Stakes winner was Resilience, who ran 6th in the Kentucky Derby.
This year’s Wood Memorial Stakes was won by Rodriguez on April 5.
Wood Memorial Stakes Result 2025
Position |
Horse
|
Trainer |
Jockey
|
| 1st | Rodriguez | Bob Baffert | Mike E Smith |
| 2nd | Grande | Todd Pletcher | Dylan Davis |
| 3rd | Passion Rules | Brad H Cox | Kendrick Carmouche |
Recent Kentucky Derby Winners
- 2024 – MYSTIK DAN (186/10)
- 2023 – MAGE (152/10)
- 2022 – RICH STRIKE (81/1)
- 2021 – MANDALOUN (269/10)
- 2020 – AUTHENTIC (84/10)
- 2019 – COUNTRY HOUSE (65/1)
- 2018 – JUSTIFY (29/10 fav)
- 2017 – ALWAYS DREAMING (47/10 fav)
- 2016 – NYQUIST (23/10 fav)
- 2015 – AMERICAN PHAROAH (29/10 fav)
- 2014 – CALIFORNIA CHROME (5/2 fav)
- 2013 – ORB (11/2 fav)
- 2012 – I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (153/10)
- 2011 – ANIMAL KINGDOM (209/10)
- 2010 – SUPER SAVER (8/1)
- 2009 – MINE THAT BIRD (51/1)
- 2008 – BIG BROWN (12/5 fav)
- 2007 – STREET SENSE (49/10 fav)
