Following a shock result on the opening weekend of Keeneland’s fall meet, top three-year-old turf fillies face off in the $800,000 Grade I Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on Saturday, October 11. Nine talented females race over the 1,800m distance at one of the big tracks in the Commonwealth of Kentucky.
For many handicappers and horse racing fans, this is a clash between Graham Motion’s unbeaten Laurelin and Fionn from the Brad Cox barn. However, there are other fillies with claims in the line-up including Edgewood Stakes and Del Mar Oaks second Lush Lips, who has gone close for trainer Brendan Walsh either side of a Listed success at Churchill Downs.
A daughter of Irish sprinting star Ten Sovereigns, her placed effort during the Kentucky Derby meet on the Oaks day schedule this spring reads well. Only Nitrogen, who went on to Grade I Alabama Stakes glory from Saratoga’s summer meet and finished a head second in last Sunday’s Spinster Stakes, proved too good for Lush Lips.
While that one also went down by a nose to one of the leading Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup contenders in Fionn as the pair crossed the wire together in the Belmont Oaks, Lush Lips almost made a graded breakthrough in California. Her Del Mar Oaks defeat by Velocity saw her gaining on the winner all the time with just half-a-length separating them.
This Keeneland contest is far from being a two-horse race, then. Also in the line-up is an old rival of both Fionn and Laurelin in Chad Brown’s Opulent Restraint. His barn has sent out four winners of this since 2018 and five overall, but the Dubawi filly needs improvement if she’s to turnabout prior form with the big guns she knows so well.
Laurelin Puts Undefeated Record on the Line
Fionn, a daughter of versatile sire Twirling Candy, spent the summer completing a hat-trick of graded wins. After prevailing in the Regret Stakes around Churchill Downs in May, she went to the Spa and just had her nose in front crossing the wire in the Belmont Oaks. Despite then carrying a 4lb penalty against the entire field, she gave weight and a beating to 11 rivals in the valuable Dueling Grounds Oaks.
Three from Kentucky Downs take Fionn on again in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup, but this is a level weights contest. Although the race has a distance of 300m shorter, there seems no obvious reason why the second Candy Quest, sixth Destino d’Oro or 11th Daisy Flyer should stop Cox’s filly from recording a fourth consecutive win.
Standing in Fionn’s way, however, is Laurelin with a perfect five victories from as many races. Motion has a three-time Listed winner on his hands in this daughter of Zarak. Laurelin moved her form up a notch with Grade II success in Saratoga Oaks over 1,900m last time. Both fillies favored on the Morning Line and by Kentucky Derby betting sites drop back in distance here, then.
It could come down to which of those this shorter race suits best. Fionn has no stamina doubts with that 2,100m victory on an undulating track last time. There is also the draw to consider with these market rivals kept apart. Laurelin jumps from a low gate, while Fionn has the widest stall of all. If that means she must cover more ground in the race, then it isn’t as big a negative as it first appears.
Simmering Tries Something New Across the Pond in Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup
Laurelin will find it easier to get up against the fence if jockey Kendrick Carmouche chooses to use those tactics here. Only Lush Lips has a draw inside her. Transatlantic raider Simmering makes her US debut for Ollie Sangster in the next gate, seeking to recapture her juvenile glory days, meanwhile. She made the show in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in England, but performed best last summer.
Simmering shipped across the Channel to France and captured the Group 2 Prix du Calvados at Deauville. Al Shaqab Racing’s daughter of Too Darn Hot then chased home subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Lake Victoria in the Moyglare Stud Stakes around the Curragh in Ireland. She hasn’t really reached those heights since, but connections hope a trip across the pond could spark a revival.
Potential improvers against the top fillies in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup aren’t easy to find. Lush Lips definitely could have more to offer trying nine furlongs again. She has nothing to fear from old rival Will Then, who must be a longshot here despite the return of legendary Italian jockey Frankie Dettori in the saddle.
Destino d’Oro is the definite second string for Cox here, but perhaps didn’t see out the extra distance in the Dueling Grounds Oaks. This filly by Bolt D’Oro has more than five lengths to find with barn buddy Fionn off worse terms at the weights, but won the Grade III Pucker Up Stakes at Ellis Park over 1,800m prior to her Kentucky Downs run.
Candy Quest finished closer to the winner, but Mark Casse’s daughter of Connect was previously no match for Laurelin. Much like Opulent Restraint, she’s had a crack at the big guns and not been able to stop them. It’s wiser if bettors look elsewhere.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Post Positions Draw
- Lush Lips
- Laurelin
- Simmering
- Daisy Flyer
- Opulent Restraint
- Candy Quest
- Destino d’Oro
- Will Then
- Fionn
Our Handicapper’s Verdict
The obvious suggestion here is a Quinella featuring Laurelin and Fionn. While the form hasn’t lost a race yet, the latter is the only Grade I winner in the line-up. Both will underperform if they’re not fighting out the finish, but these events don’t always follow the intended script.
Of the others, Lush Lips has been knocking on the door in her graded races this season and landed a Listed contest in-between them. She could go well, remains unexposed over the 1,800m distance and might make the show. It wouldn’t be a shock if Destino d’Oro bettered her finishing position from last time here, however.
WATCH: Lush Lips Run in the Edgewood Stakes During the Kentucky Derby Meet
WATCH: Laurelin Win the Saratoga Oaks
