The Kentucky Derby fourth, sixth, seventh and tenth all tackle the $3,500,000 Grade III Nashville Derby at Kentucky Downs on Saturday, August 30. That huge prize purse over the 2,100m distance tempts connections of five horses in a 12-runner field (with two reserves) campaigned in Triple Crown races during the first half of the season to switch off dirt to grass.
Juddmonte’s Final Gambit, Ian Wilkes runner Burnham Square, Mark Casse inmate Sandman and Tiztastic from the Steve Asmussen barn all missed the show in this year’s Kentucky Derby result by varying margins. Joining them at Kentucky Down, a track close to the state boundary with Tennessee in this valuable turf race for three-year-olds is Belmont Stakes fifth Hill Road.
Away from the Triple Crown trail, but running in the Nashville Derby of 2025, which is by invitation, are Belmont Derby winner Test Score, Audubon Stakes runner-up King Of Ashes, Ellis Park qualifier Tomasello, Secretariat Stakes second Simulate, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf sixth Noble Confessor, Kenny McPeek’s Maximum Promise and transatlantic raider Wimbledon Hawkeye. Iron Hand and Native Runner, who placed in the American Derby, are reserves.
It’s a big field with plenty of erstwhile Kentucky Derby horses from earlier in the campaign. Much depends on how these thoroughbreds handle the different grass surface, compared to the sloppy dirt from the Run for the Roses in May. Some bring turf experience into the race, while others compete on it for the very first time.
Some past Grade I and II winners run without any penalties here, which aids their cause. This is better than a Grade III on paper and in practice, however, attracting runners seeking a big payday between the Saratoga summer meet in Upstate New York and valuable prizes up for grabs this fall in the Bluegrass State.
Oddsmakers Favor Wimbledon Hawkeye, Test Score
If bettors believe those also-rans from Churchill Downs would again be favored by Kentucky Derby betting sites for the Nashville Derby, then think again. In a very competitive race on paper, oddsmakers have British raider Wimbledon Hawkeye a narrow favorite. James Owen’s Kameko colt jumps from Gate 12 at Kentucky Downs, but brings good form from England across the pond with him.
Wimbledon Hawkeye made the show in the Dante Stakes at York behind two subsequent winners. Although he missed out on the top three in the King Edward VII during Royal Ascot, his second to subsequent Sword Dancer scorer El Cordobes against older horses reads well for handicappers. Wimbledon Hawkeye missed out on Glorious Goodwood success by a nose in the Gordon Stakes last time and drops back in distance with Frankie Dettori now taking the ride.
Graham Motion also has a major player against the Kentucky Derby contingent here in Test Score, meanwhile. Drawn low in Gate 2, this son of Lookin At Lucky built on his Grade III Transylvania Stakes success around Keeneland when placed behind Zulu Kingdom in the American Turf during the big meet at Churchill Downs. Test Score then landed the Belmont Derby and wasn’t disgraced when again in the show trying to follow-up in the Saratoga Derby.
On both occasions at the Spa, he shaped as though he might stay the longer distance of the Nashville Derby now. Test Score also crossed the wire in front of Final Gambit, who was twice a never nearer fifth. That suggests Motion’s colt could have the beating of the Kentucky Derby also rans despite now tackling an extra furlong. If anything, that makes Test Score the leading domestic hope here.
Kentucky Derby Form Under Microscope on Kentucky Downs
Despite finishing ahead of both Burnham Square and Sandman in the Run for the Roses, Final Gambit has a bigger Morning Line price than them now. Brad Cox will probably be puzzled by that as his Not This Time colt has been crying out for a longer distance and will struggle to find a suitable race on dirt beyond a mile-and-a-quarter.
Final Gambit didn’t have the gears for the Matt Winn back at Churchill Downs eased in grade, but his staying on fifths in the Belmont and Saratoga Derbies show promise for this 2,100m contest. Unlike his closest pursuers from the Kentucky Derby, he has racing experience on grass. Final Gambit is also next to the Morning Line favorite in Gate 11.
Burnham Square has some six lengths to find with his old rival on the Run for the Roses and Sandman eight lengths. The former weaved through beaten horses into the top six at Churchill Downs and fared better over the extended mile of the Matt Winn, but there are stamina questions for him in the Nashville Derby. Similar comments apply to Sandman, who also avoids a Grade I penalty from the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Neither acquitted themselves well over 1,800m when taking on top three-year-olds Sovereignty and Journalism, respectively, over the summer. Tiztastic was only 10th at Churchill Downs, but won landed starts as a juvenile at Kentucky Downs last season and could’ve had this as a long-time target. The Louisiana Derby winner hasn’t been at his best this summer, however, and must bounce back to his prior form after trailing in last in the American and Saratoga Derbies.
Hill Road, Simulate Others to Note in Nashville Derby
Amo Racing’s Hill Road also brings turf experience to the table. He started his career in Ireland before shipping across the Atlantic and joining the Chad Brown barn. After making the show on his dirt and American debut in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile during the World Championships, Hill Road filled the same spot in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Subsequent dual Saratoga Grade I winner Patch Adams was behind him that day. Hill Road then landed the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct that punched his ticket to the Belmont. Like others in the Nashville Derby line-up, though, he was no match for Sovereignty then or in the Jim Dandy. For all a return to turf is interesting, Hill Road must find more on collateral form.
Bill Mott runs Simulate down in grade and up in distance after placing behind Giocoso in the Secretariat. His Kitten’s Joy colt had to come wide into the Colonial Downs stretch because of a wall of horses in front of him. Simulate then challenged down the middle of the track whereas the winner took a brave route up the fence and covered less ground.
Although Giocoso finished behind Test Score and Final Gambit earlier in the season, Mott’s runner should improve on pedigree for a longer race. Of the longshots guaranteed a run, he looks one that could have further progress in him. King Of Ashes beat Tomasello when both made the show in Listed company behind subsequent Saratoga Derby hero World Beater, but has disappointed since.
Those without graded and Group form are in very deep waters here. Cases for Noble Confessor and Maximum Promise are hard to make. Iron Hand carries the same 2lb penalty as favorite Wimbledon Hawkeye, but the first reserve has achieved way less on the track.
Nashville Derby 2025 Post Positions Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Hill Road (120lbs) – 6-1
- Test Score (124lbs) – 4-1
- King Of Ashes (120lbs) – 30-1
- Tomasello (120lbs) – 20-1
- Burnham Square (120lbs) – 6-1
- Simulate (120lbs) – 10-1
- Tiztastic (120lbs) – 20-1
- Sandman (120lbs) – 5-1
- Noble Confessor (120lbs) – 20-1
- Maximum Promise (120lbs) – 30-1
- Final Gambit (120lbs) – 8-1
- Wimbledon Hawkeye (122lbs) – 7-2 fav
- Iron Hand (122lbs) [ALSO ELIGIBLE] – 8-1
- Native Runner (120lbs) [ALSO ELIGIBLE] – 12-1
Our Handicapper’s Verdict
With transatlantic favorite Wimbledon Hawkeye winless in 2025 so far, value lies elsewhere. Despite conceding weight all-round here, Test Score shapes as though this extra furlong won’t cause him any problems. He’s twice beaten Final Gambit fair and square, for all the step up should suit the Juddmonte runner.
While Final Gambit has every chance of confirming Kentucky Derby form with Burnham Square and Sandman now given this even greater test of stamina, Simulate could surprise a few. Most of the longshots don’t have a lot going for them, because they haven’t won Pattern or graded stakes races.
WATCH: Frankie Dettori Win the Nashville Derby Last Season on Bellum Justum
