Kentucky Derby Prep Races: What Are The Best Churchill Downs Trials?

As the build-up towards the 150th running of the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 4, one of the smart ways to try and find the Churchill Downs winner is to look back at the best Kentucky Derby prep races. The Road to the Kentucky Derby is paved with broken dreams and hopefuls all wanting a shot at immortality.

What Are the Best Kentucky Derby Prep Races?

In addition to taking into account the best Kentucky Derby trends and stats, it can also pay to look back at this season’s key trials that have already taken place. Churchill Downs doesn’t host any of these events, so you have to look at other racetracks across America and beyond.

Over the years, many of these ‘stepping stone’ races on The Road to the Kentucky Derby have built up good records of producing winners of the first leg of the Triple Crown. This is worth looking at in more detail.

Kentucky Derby Prep Races for Winners Since 2006

Florida Derby One Of The Best Kentucky Derby Prep Races

When searching for The Run For The Roses winner, one race on The Road to the Kentucky Derby you simply can’t ignore is the Florida Derby. Since 2006, the Gulfstream Park Grade I contest has seen five horses follow-up and win the big one at Churchill Downs.

While this was backed up again in 2023 when the Florida Derby runner-up Mage went on to add his name to the Kentucky Derby winners roll of honour, the winner of that Gulfstream Park prep race – Forte – was a late scratching having been the pre-race favorite.

Therefore, even without Mage’s win added to the equation this is still a fair 28% return over the last 18 years. Oh, and this stat would have been even better had the 2019 Florida Derby winner Maximum Security not been disqualified from the final Kentucky Derby results that year.

A key takeout here is the importance of what happens at Gulfstream Park a month or so out from Churchill Downs. No other Kentucky Derby prep races can boast such a good return of providing the winner.

Florida Derby / Kentucky Derby Winners Since 2006

15 Florida Derby Winners Have Won The Kentucky Derby

As well as the five Florida Derby / Kentucky Derby winners since 2006, there have also been a total of 15 horses over the years that have both both races (see below). With the Florida Derby first run in 1952, it doesn’t come close to matching the storied history of Triple Crown events, yet its value at a key Churchill Downs trial cannot be underestimated.

The very first Kentucky Derby horse to land the double was Needles back in 1956, which was a win that led to a flurry of others following suit over the next 12 years (see below). While in more recent times, Nyquist in 2016 and Always Dreaming in 2017 are currently the last two horses to win both races.

Plus, as mentioned last year’s Florida Derby runner-up Mage did also support the good record of the Gulfstream Park race.

All Florida Derby / Kentucky Derby Winners

Which Horse Won The 2024 Florida Derby?

So, we know that the Florida Derby has the stats to back up it being the best Kentucky Derby prep race. Therefore, all that’s left is to look back on the 2024 running (see below) and give you the full result.

It was the Todd Pletcher-trained Fierceness that romped away with the 2024 Florida Derby, which was run on March 30 this season. The City Of Light colt, who is owned by Mike Repole, bolted up by 13 1/2 lengths. With Catalytic back in second.

Therefore, that emphatic win coupled with the top record of Florida Derby winners following up at Churchill Downs has meant it’s no shock to see Fierceness among those heading the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds with the best racebooks.

Fireceness will have saddle cloth 17, but due to the scratching of Encino will move to Kentucky post position draw 16 which has seen five winners in the last 30 years (17%).

Florida Derby Result 2024

WATCH: Fierceness Winning The 2024 Florida Derby

Flordia Derby Winners Since 2006

See below the full list of Florida Derby winners since 2006 and where they finished in the Kentucky Derby after.

Over the 18 year-period, five horses have followed-up and landed the Run For The Roses. While only four didn’t run at Churchill Downs.

We’ve also seen eight of the last 18 Florida Derby winners go onto finish in the top six in the Kentucky Derby, which equates to a 44% return.

This is even higher if you count another previous Kentucky Derby winner – Maximum Security, who was disqualified in 2019.

Santa Anita Derby Another Fair Kentucky Derby Prep Race

Next best when it comes to 2024 Kentucky Derby prep races is the Santa Anita Derby, which was run this year on April 6.

This Grade1 has seen two winners follow up at Churchill Downs since 2012 – California Chrome (2014) and I’ll Have Another (2012).

This return increases further if you add in the 2018 Kentucky Derby hero Justify, the latest of the Triple Crown winners, who won the Santa Anita Derby that year, but was later disqualified.

The 2024 Santa Anita Derby winner was Stronghold, who scrambled home by a neck from the Frankie Dettori-ridden Imagination (watch below).

Santa Anita Derby Result 2024

Respect The Arkansas Derby Form Too

The Arkansas Derby should also be noted as this Oaklawn Park race has also seen a fair return when it comes to producing winner and finding an angle on how to bet on the Kentucky Derby online.

This is backed up with three horses since 2010 taking in that race before taking The Run For The Roses. These were Super Saver, who was second in the Arkansas Derby in 2010, American Pharoah, who won both races, and Country House, who took bronze in the 2019 Oaklawn race before heading to Churchill Downs.

See below this year’s result with the Bob Baffert runner Muth taking the race. Due to a Churchill Downs ban on horses from that barn, however, the winner may not be able to go on from his Kentucky Derby prep race to the big day.

That means looking at the horses who placed and made the show in the Arkansas Derby is worthwhile in this scenario. We’re talking Just Steel and Mystik Dan, who filled those spots behind Muth this time around.

Arkansas Derby Result 2024

 

Kentucky Derby 2024 Race Details

The 2024 Kentucky Derby will be staged on Saturday, May 4 at Churchill Downs racetrack.

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Kentucky Derby Prep Races to Be Wary Of

Away from the top billing of the Florida Derby one the main events on The Road to the Kentucky Derby to note, there are a few that we should also be cautious of. Most notably, the Blue Grass Stakes, run at Keeneland and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

The last horse to have run in the Blue Grass (came 2nd) and follow-up in the Kentucky Derby was Street Sense in 2007. While the last horse to land both races was Strike Gold way back in 1991.

Tapit Trice took the Blue Grass in 2023 among his Kentucky Derby prep races. However, could only manage seventh at Churchill Downs.

This year’s Blue Grass winner, which was run on April 6, was the Chad Brown runner Sierra Leone, who is one of the favorites on leading Kentucky Derby betting sites. With Just A Touch in second and Epic Ride, who made it into the race after Encino was scratched, back in third (watch below).

Sierra Leone has, however, been handed gate 2 and the last winner from that post position was Affirmed in 1978.

Toyota Blue Grass Result 2024

Then, the Wood Memorial also doesn’t have a great record. You need to scoot back to 2003 (Funny Cide) to see the last horse to have run in the Aqueduct contest and win then win the Kentucky Derby.

With the last horse to be successful in both races was the Neil Drysdale-trained Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.

This year’s Wood Memorial Stakes was won by Resilience (watch below) for trainer William Mott. With Society Man, who will be ridden in the Kentucky Derby by Frankie Dettori, in second and Protective back in third.

Resilience will run with cloth number 19 and come from gate 18 with Encino scrathed. There hasn’t been a winner from that stall in the last 30 years.

Wood Memorial Stakes Result 2024

Recent Kentucky Derby Winners

• 2023 – MAGE (152/10)
• 2022 – RICH STRIKE (81/1)
• 2021 – MANDALOUN (269/10)
• 2020 – AUTHENTIC (84/10)
• 2019 – COUNTRY HOUSE (65/1)
• 2018 – JUSTIFY (29/10 fav)
• 2017 – ALWAYS DREAMING (47/10 fav)
• 2016 – NYQUIST (23/10 fav)
• 2015 – AMERICAN PHAROAH (29/10 fav)
• 2014 – CALIFORNIA CHROME (5/2 fav)
• 2013 – ORB (11/2 fav)
• 2012 – I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (153/10)
• 2011 – ANIMAL KINGDOM (209/10)
• 2010 – SUPER SAVER (8/1)
• 2009 – MINE THAT BIRD (51/1)
• 2008 – BIG BROWN (12/5 fav)
• 2007 – STREET SENSE (49/10 fav)

Kentucky Derby Prep Races FAQs

Which Horse Won The 2024 Florida Derby?

The Todd Pletcher-trained Fierceness won the 2024 Florida Derby by 13 1/2 lengths on March 30 at Gulfstream Park

Has a Florida Derby Winner Ever Won The Triple Crown?

No – as of 2023, the Florida Derby winner is yet to follow-up in all three of the US Triple Crown races – The Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes.

How Many Florida Derby Winners Went Onto Win Any Triple Crown Race?

In total 21 Florida Derby winners have gone onto win any of the three Triple Crown races – Nashua (Preakness & Belmont Stakes, 1955), Needles (Kentucky Derby & Belmont Stakes, 1956), Tim Tam (Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes, 1958), Bally Ache (Preakness Stakes, 1960), Carry Back (Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes, 1961), Candy Spots (Preakness Stakes, 1963), Northern Dancer (Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes, 1964), Forward Pass (Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes, 1968), Spectacular Bid ( Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes, 1979), Swale (Kentucky Derby & Belmont Stakes, 1984), Snow Chief (Preakness Stakes, 1986), Unbridled (Kentucky Derby, 1990), Thunder Gluch (Kentucky Derby  & Belmont Stakes, 1995), Monarchos (Kentucky Derby, 2001), Empire Maker (Belmont Stakes, 2003), Barbaro (Kentucky Derby, 2006), Big Brown (Kentucky Derby & Preakness Stakes, 2008), Orb (Kentucky Derby, 2013), Nyquist (Kentucky Derby 2016), Always Dreaming (Kentucky Derby, 2017), Tiz The Law (Belmont Stakes, 2020)