Surface versatile Nitrogen proved herself on the dirt with Alabama Stakes success over the summer, so now goes for the $2,000,000 Breeders Cup Distaff over 1,800m at the World Championships from Del Mar on Saturday, November 1. Mark Casse’s three-year-old filly returns to California where she made the show behind Lake Victoria 12 months ago.
Nearest at the finish and splitting Lake Placid scorer May Day Ready and Test Stakes winner Kilwin, that grass form has worked out well. The winner landed the Irish 1000 Guineas on home turf. Nitrogen’s own exploits on grass are considerable too as she hit a graded hat-trick in the spring with Florida Oaks success, then the Appalachian Stakes around Keeneland and defying a penalty in the Edgewood Stakes on the Kentucky Derby schedule at Churchill Downs.
She ran three times during the Saratoga summer meet on the East Coast. While there wasn’t much for Nitrogen to beat on her dirt debut on a sloppy surface in the Wonder Again Stakes, she has raced at the top level ever since. Chinned on the wire by old rival Fionn back on turf in the Belmont Oaks, the winner followed-up giving weight all-round in Kentucky Downs’ valuable Dueling Grounds Oaks.
Nitrogen then produced her career best when beating Kentucky Oaks heroine Good Cheer in the Alabama. She had dual Grade I winner La Cara 14 lengths behind in fourth. That punched her ticket to the Breeders Cup Distaff of 2025 with Nitrogen just failing by a head to reach the re-opposing Gin Gin in the Spinster Stakes back at Keeneland. Although now 1lb worse off with the winner, who went from gate to wire in front, and third Scylla, she’s a consistent filly.
Older Baffert & Weaver Females Dangerous
California trainer Bob Baffert is yet to win the Distaff, but has a strong contender in Seismic Beauty. This four-year-old daughter of Uncle Mo is a frontrunner that her opposition at Santa Anita Park and here just haven’t been able to catch this season. Seismic Beauty went from gate to wire without seeing another rival in the Santa Margarita Stakes and Clement L Hirsch Stakes.
Laid out for the Breeders Cup Distaff ever since, she’s Morning Line favorite on all the leading Kentucky Derby racebooks, yet could be taken on for the lead by Gin Gin. Seismic Beauty beat a useful filly in Kopion in the Hirsch, but Juan Hernandez must judge the pace of the race just right or risk setting things up for a deep closer or female that stays further like Nitrogen.
George Weaver saddles Dorth Vader, meanwhile, who seems to get better with age. This five-year-old Girvin mare landed the Ogden Phipps at Saratoga over the summer as conditions turned sloppy in Upstate New York. Connections have wisely given Dorth Vader a break to freshen up since her epic Spa battle with Thorpedo Anna in the Personal Ensign. Following a fight all the way up the home stretch, such a slog could’ve left its mark on both.
The nose winner, who captured the Distaff with Japan’s Alice Veritie back in fourth, en route to being crowned the 2024 Horse of the Year, has since retired after finishing fourth in the Spinster. A high draw in Gate 12 could also be an issue for Dorth Vader here, but the way she pushed Thorpedo Anna to her limit suggests she could have another big race in her.
Clicquot a Potential Improver in Breeders Cup Distaff 2025 Field
Brendan Walsh has a three-year-old filly who looks as though she’s progressing at just the right time in Clicquot. Nitrogen apart, the younger females don’t look the most reliable, but this daughter of Quality Road built on a good win in the Indiana Oaks with Grade I glory in the Cotillion Stakes at Parx last time. A timely career best from Clicquot saw her give weight to the second and third.
While she has nothing to fear from neck runner-up Dry Powder off 2lb better term, she’s worse off at the weights with re-opposing fourth Scottish Lassie. Jorge Abreu’s McKinzie filly is capable of spectacular performances like a 15-length romp in the Coaching Club American Oaks, but hasn’t managed two such displays in the same season yet.
Everything else in the Breeders Cup Distaff 2025 line-up is a longshot. Of those, however, Gun Song looks worth closer inspection for Mark Hennig. A four-year-old daughter of Gun Runner, she beat a useful one in Randomized off level weights in the Grade II Beldame Stakes in her prep race for this. If using Thorpedo Anna as a form marker, then Gun Song’s neck second in the 2024 Cotillion Stakes reads well.
Making cases for the remainder is difficult. Regaled, drawn widest of all, landed the Delaware Handicap in the mud impressively enough last time. Her success off a low weight needs improving on now, though. Gin Gin can’t be relied upon to reproduce the Spinster result, even on slightly better terms. Japanese raider Alice Veritie hasn’t bettered finishing fourth 12 months ago on any subsequent starts. South American import Sarawak Rim is a very difficult filly to assess.
Breeders Cup Distaff 2025 Post Positions Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Nitrogen (121lbs) – 4-1
- Sarawak Rim (124lbs) – 12-1
- Clicquot (121lbs) – 10-1
- Scylla (124lbs) – 15-1
- Scottish Lassie (121lbs) – 12-1
- Alice Veritie (124lbs) – 20-1
- Gin Gin (124lbs) – 12-1
- Seismic Beauty (124lbs) – 9-5 fav
- Majestic Oops (124lbs) – 30-1
- Gun Song (124lbs) – 30-1
- Dry Powder (121lbs) – 20-1
- Dorth Vader (124lbs) – 5-1
- Regaled (124lbs) – 30-1
Our Handicapper’s Verdict
Seismic Beauty should go well from the front, but throats could end up cut and therefore Nitrogen appeals more. If there’s a strong pace to aim at, then she might turnabout Keeneland form with Gin Gin here. A wide draw does the freshened up Dorth Vader no favors, meanwhile.
Despite meeting Scottish Lassie off 2lb worse terms from Parx, there’s a feeling Clicquot isn’t done improving just yet. She could be a longshot that makes the show. It’d no surprise if Gun Song outran her massive forecast price either with the others making little appeal.
WATCH: Breeders Cup Distaff 2025 Favorite Seisimic Beauty Win the Clement L Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar
