Kenneth McPeek enjoyed World Championship success at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club 12 months ago with Horse of the Year and wonder-filly Thorpedo Anna in the Distaff, but now aims another of his barn’s stars at the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile of 2025 in Mystik Dan. He drops down in distance for the $1,000,000 race in California on Saturday, November 1.
It’s a new avenue for connections to explore with the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, who faces nine rivals on the West Coast. While all of Mystik Dan’s best performances have come at Churchill Downs, he should be a strong stayer at a mile. Swerving the more valuable Breeders Cup Classic for this is nothing new either. From a pedigree perspective, this switch makes sense.
Mystik Dan is bred for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile as his sire Goldencents won consecutive editions of the race at California’s other premier track, Santa Anita. His Churchill Downs form, both last season in the Run for the Roses and away from the highest level this year, actually reads really well. It’s not just those in the famous three-way photo finish either.
While Mystik Dan just prevailed in the Kentucky Derby result over subsequent Breeders Cup Classic hero Sierra Leone and Saudi Cup scorer Forever Young, some of those down the field last spring have also won big races since. Dornoch, who went on to Belmont and Haskell Stakes success, finished 10th. Domestic Product (13th) and Fierceness (15th) have also landed Grade I events.
Recent Kentucky Derby winner curse is… 🤫
MYSTIK DAN won the G3 Blame Stakes at @ChurchillDowns and is the first Derby champ to win another race since Mandaloun 🥇
— World Horse Racing (@WHR) June 1, 2025
In the Grade III Blame Stakes over 1,800m, Mystik Dan held off subsequent Jockey Club Gold Cup hero Antiquarian and Breeders Cup Dirt Mile second Post Time this spring. His Grade II victory in the Lukas Classic isn’t too shabby form wise either.
Baffert Trio Pose Major Threats
This race is one of the few contests at the World Championships that Bob Baffert hasn’t won. His California barn has three runners heading to Del Mar in search of a breakthrough. Of those, Morning Line odds and the prices on Kentucky Derby betting sites favor Nysos. A four-year-old colt by Nyquist, he justified huge market confidence to land his last couple of starts.
Nysos impressed in the Triple Bend at Santa Anita, then defied topweight in the San Diego Handicap over the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile course and distance. His prior dead-heat second in the Churchill Downs Stakes on Kentucky Derby day to Classic contender Mindframe is also a strong piece of form. However, Banishing who crossed the wire level with Nysos has since been twice well-beaten by Mystik Dan.
Baffert’s other runners in the race could improve for tackling a mile. Goal Oriented missed the show when he didn’t stay the 1,900m of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. A three-year-colt by Not This Time, he finished much closer to Journalism in Monmouth Park’s Haskell Stakes over the summer. Goal Oriented again didn’t last stamina-wise when showing in the Pennsylvania Derby.
Going down in distance for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile of 2025 makes sense with him, then. Goal Oriented may well see the race out stronger with less emphasis on staying power. Citizen Bull, meanwhile, has won at the World Championships before with Breeders Cup Juvenile success here 12 months ago.
Like barn buddy Goal Oriented and longshots Chancer McPatrick and Touch Of Destiny, this Into Mischief colt receives 3lb weight for age as three-year-olds. Citizen Bull aced his prep race over course and distance last time when he went from gate to wire without seeing a rival. A mile appears optimum for him.
Full Serrano Back to Defend Breeders Cup Dirt Mile Crown
Twice the age of the Baffert three-year-olds are a couple of previous World Championships winners. John Sadler brings reigning champ Full Serrano back for the defense of his crown. This six-year-old son of Full Mast readily landed this prize 12 months ago from Post Time. Full Serrano, who boasts a perfect 3-3 record over course and distance had re-opposing fourth Tumbarumba five lengths behind him.
While he doesn’t seem to stay further than a mile, he hasn’t been disgraced when trying further since joining the Sadler barn from Argentina. Full Serrano’s 2024 Pacific Classic conqueror Mixto went on to finish fourth in the Pegasus World Cup and second in the Dubai World Cup earlier this year. Triumphing in the former race in Florida was White Abarrio.
Saffie Joseph’s son of Race Day delivered the goods at Gulfstream Park for his first win since the 2023 Breeders Cup Classic. All of White Abarrio’s best performances have come over longer distances than the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, however. From three runs in the Metropolitan Handicap at the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, he’s managed no better than third in 2023 to Cody’s Wish, who won this twice.
Only one six-year-old has ever landed this World Championship race, so both Full Serrano, who warmed up for this with a good second in the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita, and White Abarrio look vulnerable to younger legs. The longshots in against them, Baffert’s trio and Mystik Dan just don’t have the same level of form, however, so a shock result looks unlikely.
Breeders Cup Dirt Mile 2025 Post Positions Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Will Take It (126lbs) – 30-1
- Goal Oriented (123lbs) – 6-1
- Nysos (126lbs) – 8-5 fav
- Mystik Dan (126lbs) – 6-1
- Tumbarumba (126lbs) – 20-1
- Full Serrano (126lbs) – 7-2
- Citizen Bull (123lbs) – 10-1
- Chancer McPatrick (123lbs) – 15-1
- Touch Of Destiny (123lbs) – 20-1
- White Abarrio (126lbs) – 8-1
Our Handicapper’s Verdict
With Nysos such a strong favorite, but the barn yet to win this and his form not as strong as others, he can be opposed. The most interesting pair are Mystik Dan and Goal Oriented, who could both benefit from dropping back to a mile.
Citizen Bull delivered 12 months ago and likes it here, so more going for him than an apparent Baffert barn third string. Full Serrano won this very race last year and also has a good Del Mar record, so cannot be discounted. White Abarrio probably needs further.
WATCH: Full Serrano Win the 2024 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile
