For the first time in its history, the $750,000 Belmont Derby takes place at Saratoga Race Course in Upstate New York on July 4 and features Kentucky Derby fourth Final Gambit. Switching to this Grade I invitational turf race over a reduced distance of 1,800m is a big call from trainer Brad Cox.
Owner-breeders Juddmonte are no strangers to running their big guns on grass worldwide, but Final Gambit was for many viewers and handicappers unlucky in The Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs this spring. A colt by Not This Time, the bare Kentucky Derby result from May doesn’t quite tell the whole story.
Final Gambit lost his race at the start. Squeezed out by other runners leaving the gate, he trailed the field and was still towards the back when turning into the home stretch. Although forced wide around the final bend, he then picked up and stayed on strongly into a never nearer fourth.
The form of the top three Kentucky Derby horses looks solid, meanwhile. Second place Journalism went one better in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico in Baltimore, then Sovereignty confirmed the finishing order from Churchill Downs with that one and Baeza when this trio were again 1-2-3 in the Belmont Stakes.
A shot at the Belmont Derby of 2025 for Final Gambit is a bold move after he didn’t fire in another dirt race in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. He again trailed the field in the Grade III Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs in June, finishing last of four. East Avenue, Burnham Square and Coal Battle were all behind him in the Kentucky Derby, but turned the form about completely.
Luther & New Century Resume Rivalry
Among the field of eight are two colts that locked horns across the pond last season. English trainer Charlie Fellowes continues campaigning Luther overseas with the colt by Frankel set for his third career start away from home. He just missed the show in the French 2000 Guineas at Longchamp in Paris, but finished just a short-neck behind subsequent French Derby hero Camille Pissarro in May.
Luther then didn’t fire in that Chantilly Classic over 2,100m, so drops back to an intermediate distance in the Belmont Derby of 2025. As a juvenile, he finished second to Qatar Racing’s New Century in a Listed race at Salisbury. That one has since crossed the Atlantic on a permanent basis and joined the Brendan Walsh barn.
New Century, a son of Kameko, ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on his American debut when still trained by Andrew Balding. That followed Grade I Summer Stakes success on his first transatlantic trip to Woodbine Racetrack on the edge of Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
After coming fifth on his return from a winter break in a Classic trial, New Century made the show and just missed second on his current stable debut in the American Turf Stakes at Churchill Downs. Just a nose separated him and re-opposing runner-up Test Score with the Graham Motion barn winning last year’s Belmont Derby courtesy of Trikari.
That form may prove key to how Kentucky Derby betting sites and other racebooks price up this race. Test Score is a Grade III winner in his own right after landing the Transylvania Stakes around Keeneland this spring. With American Turf winner Zulu Kingdom running in another Saratoga race on the same card, that gives Motion a chance to repeat last year’s training performance.
World Beater on the Upgrade for Mott Junior
Riley Mott tries to breakout from the shadow of famous father Bill, who has three wins in this, and as a trainer in his own right with the improving World Beater, meanwhile. He arrives at the Spa after consecutive distance wins around Churchill Downs with the latter in Listed company.
A colt by Oscar Performance, World Beater proved too good for Early Adopter, who re-opposes in the Belmont Derby of 2025 from the Chad Brown barn. Carlos David’s Tank, meanwhile, is another in-form horse from a lower level heading to Saratoga.
Much like World Beater, the son of Adios Charlie, must step up on Listed success in this much higher grade of competition. Tank now makes his first career start outside of Florida after almost racing exclusively at Gulfstream Park, but he’s won his last three.
Completing the line-up is Flying Mohawk, who chased home Final Gambit in the Jeff Ruby Steaks around Turfway Park in the spring. Whitworth Beckman has given this Karakontie colt a break after only beating one home in the Kentucky Derby.
Flying Mohawk has a couple of wins on turf before, so switching back from dirt is no problem for him. It is more a question of whether Frankie Dettori’s mount can deliver at Grade I level on either surface.
Belmont Derby 2025 Post Position Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Tank – 12-1
- Early Adopter – 12-1
- Luther – 6-1
- New Century – 3-1
- Test Score – 4-1
- Final Gambit – 5-2 fav
- World Beater – 10-1
- Flying Mohawk – 6-1
Our Handicappers’ Verdict
The best form on offer from this surfaces looks to be the American Turf Stakes from Churchill Downs, but there is almost nothing between Test Score and New Century. An exotic like the Quinella could be a smart play here.
Final Gambit blew it at the start and nothing about how he shaped in the Kentucky Derby suggests dropping down in distance will help him. Luther, however, could make the show, if reproducing his French Guineas run across the Atlantic on faster ground. World Beater has the most upside of the longshots, meanwhile.
