With $1,000,000 on offer in the Grade I Arlington Million at Colonial Downs on Saturday, August 9, connections of 2024 Kentucky Derby hero Mystik Dan take him off the dirt for his turf debut in the valuable 2,000m contest.
It’s a sensational switch of surfaces for the four-year-old Goldencents colt, who belied a perceived lack of stamina in his pedigree to just hold on at Churchill Downs last spring. The three-way photo finish served up one of the most memorable Kentucky Derby results in the storied history of the Run for the Roses.
Mystik Dan placed in the Preakness and finished down the field in the Belmont Stakes. He’s won just one race since lasting home and crossing the wire a nose ahead of Sierra Leone, who recently advertised the Derby form when landing the Grade I Whitney Stakes at Saratoga. Grass is a complete unknown to Kenneth McPeek’s star and running him on it wouldn’t have been on anyone’s bingo card.
Sierra Leone, not for the first time actually, finished in front of the Kentucky Derby winner when the old rivals faced off again in the Stephen Foster Stakes around Churchill Downs again. It may be fourth spot in that Grade I which has prompted connections of Mystik Dan to try something new with him. Class alone won’t get him through the Arlington Million of 2025, however.
Up against Mystik Dan are a maximum of seven opponents, albeit with one in Grand Sonata who could be bound for the Spa and the $750,000 Sword Dancer Stakes over 2,400m instead. No penalties apply to past success here, however, so the entire field meets off level weights.
Integration Brings Strong Form into Race
Shug McGaughey runs two in the race, Fort Washington and Integration. The former is a three-time Grade III winner and joint-oldest in the line-up aged six. Fort Washington turned about prior Gulfstream Park form with old rival Major Dude in the spring, but needed a 7lb pull at the weights to turn a neck defeat into a nose victory.
The son of War Front is definitely not the McGaughey barn’s first string in the Arlington Million of 2025, however. Integration placed in this very race 12 months ago behind globetrotting Godolphin horse Nations Pride and has since finished second in three Grade Is this season. They include the Pegasus World Cup Turf in Florida and Maker’s Mark Mile around Keeneland.
It’s the latest effort from Integration that prompts oddsmakers on Kentucky Derby betting sites and Morning Line forecasters to favor him. He almost ran down Deterministic in the Manhattan Stakes on the Belmont card with the winner and third, Far Bridge, both scoring since. That Saratoga form not only looks solid, but strong based on subsequent results.
Integration is knocking on the door at the top level with John Velazquez again booked for the ride after going so close at the Spa in June. The five-year-old son of Quality Road has two Grade IIs on his resume around Aqueduct, as well as the 2023 Virginia Derby where he beat re-opposing third Runaway Storm comfortably.
Newmarket trainer Alice Haynes sends Cairo over from England, meanwhile. An one-time inmate of the Aidan O’Brien stable in Ireland, this other Quality Road five-year-old made the show in the Queen Anne Stakes during Royal Ascot at huge odds. Completing the field are longshots Time Song and Vesting.
Arlington Million 2025 Post Positions Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Mystik Dan – 9-2
- Time Song – 30-1
- Vesting – 12-1
- Runaway Storm – 20-1
- Cairo – 7-2
- Fort Washington – 4-1
- Grand Sonata – 8-1
- Integration – 8-5 fav
Our Handicapper’s Verdict
Whenever a horse from the Triple Crown trail switches to grass, there’s always heightened interest in the race. There are no guarantees that Mystik Dan will be a better horse on turf than dirt, however, and obvious leading form claims belong to Integration.
Morning Line odds suggest the dangers to McGaughey lie within his own barn with Fort Washington and in a transatlantic runner like Cairo that hasn’t won outside of Ireland. On paper, at least, this looks a great opportunity for Integration to go one better than 12 months ago. He’s the most reliable option and right favorite.
WATCH: Nations Pride Beat Integration in the Arlington Million of 2024
Grade 1 glory for the boys in blue! 🔵 @godolphin
It’s job done for @WilliamBuickX and Charlie Appleby at @ColonialDowns as Nations Pride justifies favouritism in the Arlington Million… pic.twitter.com/tYifADJhWf
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) August 12, 2024
