A three-way photo finish decided the Kentucky Derby of 2024, but the two horses who lost out at Churchill Downs could gain compensation in the $7,000,000 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic in California at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club on Saturday, November 2.
Two noses separated those who made the show crossing the wire in “The Run for the Roses”. Sierra Leone and Forever Young both just failed in their lunges to pass Mystik Dan. It was the most sensational of Kentucky Derby results in the race’s storied history.
While that lives long in the memory of anyone who witnessed it live at Churchill Downs or on TV, the end of season meet acts as the World Championships for thoroughbred horse racing on both dirt and turf. The Breeders’ Cup Classic may also decide the Eclipse Award for the American Champion Three-Year-Old Male Horse.
This is because the winners of Triple Crown races were all different horses earlier in the campaign. Mystik Dan hung on in the Derby, Pat Day Mile winner Seize The Grey landed the Preakness Stakes and Dornoch delivered in the Belmont Stakes over a shorter distance than normal.
In other words, if the Breeders’ Cup Classic goes to a three-year-old, that could swing the vote on who gets the coveted Eclipse Award. Four horses from that age bracket are among the final field of 14 in Del Mar. They receive 4lb weight for age from their elders.
Sierra Leone Owner-Companion Made Breeders’ Cup Classic Favorite
It’s not Sierra Leone or Forever Young that offshore betting sites who price up the Kentucky Derby and other big Grade I races favor, however. In a most unusual situation, Irish raider City Of Troy who has never raced on dirt before is the 5-2 Morning Line favorite with oddsmakers.
Drawn in Gate 3 and representing the Coolmore partners that also own Sierra Leone, Aidan O’Brien seeks a fifth career Group 1/Grade I for his three-year-old Justify colt. Connections believe that Epsom Derby, Sandown Coral-Eclipse and York Juddmonte International winner City Of Troy will handle dirt racing just fine as his sire won the 2018 Triple Crown for Bob Baffert.
City Of Troy carries the first silks of principal owner Sue Magnier with Sierra Leone in the second colours. Chad Brown’s son of Gun Runner is a 12-1 chance on the Morning Line after a string of fine races in defeat since that agonizing loss in the Kentucky Derby.
Sierra Leone (Gate 11) made the show in each of his three Saratoga runs over the summer. He came third in the Belmont, then second in the Grade II Jim Dandy before Fierceness confirmed form with him in the Travers Stakes.
Splitting impressive Florida Derby scorer Fierceness and Sierra Leone last time out was Kentucky Oaks heroine Thorpedo Anna. She has won since and is a red-hot favorite for the $2,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Distaff earlier on the Del Mar card.
Todd Pletcher won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2019 with Vino Rosso. In Fierceness (Gate 9), he has the 3-1 second-favorite on the Morning Line. He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile dirt race when this meet was at Santa Anita Park 12 months ago.
Forever Young 6-1 for Japan Breakthrough from Gate 1
The only blip Fierceness had from his main targets this year was when fancied in the Kentucky Derby odds and not firing at Churchill Downs. Japan got closer than ever to a maiden Breeders’ Cup Classic triumph last year when Derma Sotogake (Gate 6) ran second.
He is back for another try, but a 20-1 price on the Morning Line suggest their best chance of carrying first prize back across the Pacific lies elsewhere.
Kentucky Derby third Forever Young breaks from the innermost draw, meanwhile. The Real Steel colt is much shorter in the market at 6/1 and thus expected to reverse Churchill Downs form with Sierra Leone. Forever Young won his prep race, the Japan Dirt Classic, en route.
Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic fifth Ushba Tesoro (Gate 7) also goes again. A dirt winner in Japan last December, he ran second in the Saudi Cup and filled the same spot in his defense of the Dubai World Cup out in the Middle East over the winter.
Despite being the oldest in the line-up aged seven, Ushba Tesoro has the same Morning Line odds of 12-1 as Sierra Leone. The Japanese challenge is stronger than ever with the Far East nation sending an unprecedented number of horses to California for the World Championships.
Prolific Next Must Prove Effective Over Breeders’ Cup Classic Trip
From the older horses for the home team, Next is something of a winning machine at a lower level and over further. Representing the William Cowans barn, he is 8-1 on the Morning Line for a successful drop back in distance.
That is a short forecast price for the six-year-old gelding by Not This Time, who has recent wins over trips ranging from 2,200m to 2,800m. With stamina such an asset for Next, it is a question of whether he has the speed for this easy 2,000m at Del Mar.
He has won the same three races this summer and fall as last term. Next, who jumps from the widest draw in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, has back-to-back victories in the Grade II Brooklyn Stakes.
Whitney Stakes winner Arthur’s Ride (Gate 12) is on the comeback trail at 15-1 after coming fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time. He finished behind Highland Falls (Gate 2), Pyrenees (Gate 8) and Tapit Trice (Gate 10) at Saratoga.
Bill Mott has two wins in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, however, so Arthur’s Ride is in the right hands. Godolphin runner Highland Falls is a 20-1 chance, alongside Bob Baffert’s Newgate (Gate 13), for the Brad Cox barn who won this in 2020. The others are longshots.
Breeders’ Cup Classic 2024 Draw & Morning Line Odds
- Forever Young (Ryusei Sakai, Yoshito Yahagi, 122lbs) 6-1 [JPN]
- Highland Falls (Luis Saez, Brad Cox, 126lbs) 20-1
- City Of Troy (Ryan Moore, Aidan O’Brien, 122lbs) 5-2 fav [IRE]
- Mixto (Kyle Frey, Doug O’Neill, 126lbs) 30-1
- Senor Buscador (Joel Rosario, Todd Fincher, 126lbs) 30-1
- Derma Sotogake (Christophe Lemaire, Hidetaka Otonashi, 126lbs) 20-1 [JPN]
- Ushba Tesoto (Yuga Kawada, Noboru Tagaki, 126lbs) 12-1 [JPN]
- Pyrenees (Brian Hernandez, Cherie DeVaux, 126lbs) 30-1
- Fierceness (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 122lbs) 3-1
- Tapit Trice (Irad Ortiz, Todd Pletcher, 126lbs) 30-1
- Sierra Leone (Flavien Prat, Chad Brown, 122lbs) 12-1
- Arthur’s Ride (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott, 126lbs) 15-2
- Newgate (Frankie Dettori, Bob Baffert, 126lbs) 20-1
- Next (Luan Machado, William Cowans, 126lbs) 8-1
- Rattle N Roll (Jose Ortiz, Kenneth McPeek, 126lbs) 30-1 [RESERVE]
